Why The Air Force Will Repair, Surge Forward With New Sentinel ICBM

By Olawale Abaire, Warrior Editorial Fellow

The Air Force’s LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program has been certified to continue by the Pentagon’s acquisition and sustainment chief, William LaPlante, despite a significant cost overrun of 81%. The program’s cost estimate has increased from $77.6 billion to $140.9 billion, a jump of $63.3 billion. The Sentinel program aims to replace the aging Minuteman III missiles with a new generation of ICBMs.

The Sentinel program exceeded its baseline cost projections, resulting in a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach. The program must be terminated unless the Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment certifies to Congress that the program meets established criteria to continue. The program’s delay is now estimated to be at least three years, instead of the initial two-year prediction. The Air Force will bear the cost of the overrun, which is expected to be spread over five budget years. The service has time to restructure its budget to adjust for the ICBM’s higher cost.

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LaPlante attributed the cost overrun to the program’s complexity, the lack of maturity in the design, and the department’s limited experience in building new ICBMs. The review team explored various alternatives, including extending the Minuteman III missiles until 2070 and different configurations of ground facilities, but none met operational requirements or offered a cost advantage. The Sentinel program will undergo “reasonable modifications” to mitigate some of the cost increases, but the final expenditure is expected to be close to the current projections.

LaPlante justified the program’s continuation based on several factors:

– National Security: The Sentinel is critical for maintaining the U.S. nuclear deterrent.