By Olawale Abaire, Warrior Editorial Fellow
The Air Force’s LGM-35A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) program has been certified to continue by the Pentagon’s acquisition and sustainment chief, William LaPlante, despite a significant cost overrun of 81%. The program’s cost estimate has increased from $77.6 billion to $140.9 billion, a jump of $63.3 billion. The Sentinel program aims to replace the aging Minuteman III missiles with a new generation of ICBMs.
The Sentinel program exceeded its baseline cost projections, resulting in a critical Nunn-McCurdy breach. The program must be terminated unless the Secretary of Defense for Acquisition and Sustainment certifies to Congress that the program meets established criteria to continue. The program’s delay is now estimated to be at least three years, instead of the initial two-year prediction. The Air Force will bear the cost of the overrun, which is expected to be spread over five budget years. The service has time to restructure its budget to adjust for the ICBM’s higher cost.
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LaPlante attributed the cost overrun to the program’s complexity, the lack of maturity in the design, and the department’s limited experience in building new ICBMs. The review team explored various alternatives, including extending the Minuteman III missiles until 2070 and different configurations of ground facilities, but none met operational requirements or offered a cost advantage. The Sentinel program will undergo “reasonable modifications” to mitigate some of the cost increases, but the final expenditure is expected to be close to the current projections.
LaPlante justified the program’s continuation based on several factors:
– National Security: The Sentinel is critical for maintaining the U.S. nuclear deterrent.
– Cost-Effective Alternatives: No other programs could meet requirements at a lower cost.
– Reasonable Cost Estimates: Validated by the Director of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation.
– Priority: The Sentinel is a higher priority than other programs whose funding might be reduced.
– Management Structure: Sufficient to manage and control acquisition costs.
The Air Force fully supports the decision to restructure the Sentinel program and is committed to delivering a robust nuclear deterrent while controlling costs. The Air Force will develop a comprehensive plan to restructure the program, tackling the root causes of cost growth, improving program management and oversight, and ensuring the long-term success and sustainability of the ICBM force.
Furthermore, the Sentinel program is a historic effort to modernize the land leg of the nuclear triad, which is essential to national security. The program’s scale, scope, and complexity are unprecedented in contemporary times. The Air Force is committed to ensuring the nuclear triad remains a credible and effective deterrent.
According to LaPlante, “the program will be restructured to address the root causes of the breach and ensure an appropriate management structure is in place to control costs.” So, the program’s management structure will be overhauled, and the Air Force will establish a dedicated program executive officer for ICBMs. The Sentinel program is essential to national security, and there are no alternative programs that can achieve the requirement at less cost. The program’s management structure is adequate to manage and control the program acquisition unit cost.
The Sentinel ICBM program’s continuation, despite significant cost overruns and delays, underscores its critical role in national security. The restructuring efforts and enhanced oversight aim to address the root causes of the issues while ensuring the program meets future defense needs. The Air Force remains committed to modernizing its nuclear forces and maintaining a robust deterrent in an increasingly complex security environment.
In conclusion, the Sentinel ICBM program is essential to national security, and the DOD has taken the necessary steps to ensure its continuation while addressing the cost growth and management structure issues. The Air Force is committed to delivering a robust nuclear deterrent while controlling costs and ensuring the long-term success and sustainability of the ICBM force.
