By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military modernization
The People’s Liberation Army – Navy appears to be fast-tracking its prototype carrier-launched 5th-generation J-31 stealth fighter, a move which would appear to rival the already deployed US Navy F-35C.
The most known element of China’s J-31 carrier-launched stealth fighter may simply be that there are not many of them, given that the PRC newspaper cite two prototypes and the aircraft does not appear to be fully operational yet.
However, the aircraft does present a potential threat the Pentagon is likely to take seriously, as it would be the PLA Navy’s first ever carrier-launched 5th-generation fighter, an aircraft likely engineered to rival the US Navy’s F-35C. The PLA seems far behind when it comes to engineering any kind of F-35B equivalent, or 5th-generation aircraft able to deploy vertically from amphibious assault ships, yet it does cite pictures and publish news reports about its emerging J-31. This aircraft has what appears to be a very similar operational purpose when compared to F-35C, the US Navy’s carrier-launched variant of the Joint Strike Fighter. It may take several years before the PLA can field an impactful operational force of J-31s, however its existence would give China a previously unprecedented power projection capability. A PLA Navy 5th-generation carrier-based stealth aircraft will enable the PLA-N to launch stealth air attacks in previously unreachable areas of the world. China could hold enemies at risk in new ways across parts of the world where it seeks and pursues greater influence and power. For example, the PRC is well known for seeking to expand its economic and military influence in places such as Africa and South America. The PLA has built its own military base right near the US’ existing base in Djibouti on the horn of Africa, and the PRC is known to be aggressively investing in Africa and other places where it seeks greater influence. All of this aligns with the well-documented Chinese ambition to become the world’s undisputed global military power by its centennial in 2049, if not much sooner.
How might the J-31 rival the F-35C?
Very little is known about the J-31, apart from its obvious resemblance to the F-35, something that does not surprise many US leaders given their well-known concern about the PLA’s regular and seemingly transparent efforts to “replicate” or “copycat” US weapons platforms. The rounded wing-body fuselage does clearly resemble the stealthy shape of the US-F-35, which by design seems not to have sharp edges or protruding structures likely to generate a return signal to enemy radar. The J-31-F-35 design similarities are not only recognizable to the observers eye, but they are also specifically cited in a Chinese newspaper as far back as 2013. The Chinese-government-backed “People’s Daily Online” essay in 2013 cites specific design similarities, writing “the J-31 and F-35 use the same DSI inlet (non boundary-layer separated land supersonic inlet).”
Also, the J-31 appears to operate with an internal weapons bay, a similarity recognized by AeroCorner, a publication which lists an extensive amount of “specs” and performance parameters of the J-31, also called the Shenyang FC-31.
“The fifth generation jet fighter Shenyang FC-31 features exceptional maneuverability, stealth design, and an internal weapons bay, as well as upgraded avionics and sensors that provide situational awareness improvements, enhancements in radar tracking and targeting capacities, together with an upgraded electronic warfare system,” Aerocorner writes.
Aerocorner states that the J-31 flies with two RD-93 afterburning turbofan engines and flies at roughly Mach 1.8 with a max cruise speed of 1080 knots. The Aerocorner specs say the J-31 can reach 65,000 feet and, perhaps most surprisingly, operates with a range of 2,160 nautical miles.
This range seems quite significant in terms of combat attack reach, in large measure because available specs list the F-35C as having a range of at least 1,300 nautical miles. The F-35C specs to say “at least,” something which leaves the door open to its range being longer, yet there may indeed be a substantial range disparity.
However, the true margin of difference between the two aircraft may not be fully discernable as it likely pertains to mission systems, computing, sensing and weapons performance parameters. These attributes may be more difficult to determine, yet the aircraft with superior sensor-range, targeting and guided weapons attack capability would likely prevail quickly against the other.
The Aerocorner specs do say the J-31 operates with AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar, a technology often able to track multiple targets simultaneously. However, US Air Force wargames have shown that the F-35 can “see” and “destroy” 4th-generation enemy aircraft from undetectable stand-off ranges, something which allows a single aircraft to destroy multiple enemy fighters in the air at ranges from which it is itself undetected. This pertains to the range, image fidelity and computing related to its well-known EO/IR high-resolution targeting and 360-degree sensors called the Distributed Aperture System. Also, often called a “flying computer,” the F-35 is known for its sensor fusion, threat data library called Mission Data Files and high-speed computer processing. The operative question therefore is, to what extent can the J-31 replicate this range and fidelity? If not, then it will not likely have much of a chance against an F-35C.
Finally, there is the simple question of numbers, given that the PLA is only known to operate several J-31 prototypes, and the US F-35 is already operational and deployed in significant numbers. The US Navy, for instance, is well on the way to building as many as 273 F-35C aircraft. The US F-35 fleet operates with a formation-wide interoperable Multifunction Advance Data Link (MADL) enabling data transmission across an entire formation of F-35s in real time, something which offers a great advantage to larger numbers of aircraft able to span across a wider air-attack envelope and exchange targeting and sensor information.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
