By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The People’s Liberation Army – Navy has more attack submarines than the US Navy, is fast-tracking production of more, launching a new SHANG III class of boats and adding several of the new guided-missile nuclear-attack submarines in the short term.
The concern is articulated in the Pentagon’s annual China report, called the Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China, which states that the PLA Navy will have three new hulls of this class by 2025.
The most significant element of these new submarines, the Pentagon report explains, likely pertains to its quieting technologies and potential to conduct clandestine missions.
“This new SHANG-class variant will enhance the PLAN’s anti-surface warfare capability and could provide a clandestine land-attack option if equipped with land-attack cruise missiles,” the Pentagon report says.
China Has More Attack Submarines Than the US Navy
According to 2023 military assessments published by GlobalFirepower.com, China has 78 submarines, 10 more than the US Navy, a likely reason why US Navy leaders have been working with Congress for many years now to massively scale up attack submarine production. The concern among Navy leaders and prominent members of Congress has been that Los Angeles-class submarines are retiring much faster than Virginia-class submarines can be built, leading may to express concern about a US Navy attack submarine deficit. This deficit has been expected to grow in the immediate years ahead, a key reason why Navy weapons developers have been working closely with members of Congress and the industrial base to essentially “flex” production to help close the US Navy’s attack submarine deficit.
Several years ago, the Navy conducted and industrial base assessment which did indeed determine that industry has the capacity to expand and potentially build one more Virginia class attack submarine per year than was previously planned. Sure enough, both General Dynamics Electric Boat and HII have scaled production capacity to a large extent to accommodate the Navy demand. The demand is significant, as for many years Navy combatant commander requests for attack submarines has exceeded available supply.
Apart from a potential numbers deficit, perhaps the most pressing question when it comes to any US-China attack submarine competition relates to the measure of technological superiority. Attack submarines are greatly needed, especially in the Pacific given some of the new quieting technologies and undersea surveillance cutting edge Block III and beyond Virginia-class submarines and beyond. Submarines with additional “quieting” technology, a Large Aperture Bow sonar, high-fidelity longer-range sonar and new generations of communications systems are increasingly well positioned to conduct clandestine undersea surveillance missions. There are coastal and island near areas near enemy territories where larger, deep-draft surface warships simply cannot access without being greatly imperiled and put at risk of being easily detected and destroyed by enemy submarines, torpedoes and land-weapons.
More than 10-years ago, the US Navy worked with industry to integrate a series of new innovations into a prototype Virginia-class Block III ship called the USS South Dakota. The details of these technologies were generally announced by Navy weapons developers, yet details were understandably not available for security reasons. The innovations, however, were explained by Navy developers as substantially performance enhancing, meaning they likely related to sensing, quieting technologies and detection capabilities. After being integrated years ago onto a prototype USS South Dakota, the technological enhancements became operational and built into subsequent Virginia boats. They are operational today, and the intent with these innovations has likely been to stay in front of major great power adversaries to preserve the US Navy’s undersea superiority.
The results of any competition between US and Chinese attack submarines likely relates to these kinds of questions, because if US Navy attack submarines are quieter, less detectable and able to sense, detect and target enemy submarines and locations. This margin of difference, should there be one between US and Chinese attack submarines, could ultimately prove more impactful than pure numbers should China continue to operate with a larger number of attack submarines. The Pentagon report says the new SHANG III class is being built with a new generation of technologies aimed at enabling “clandestine” missions, so it is likely critical for Pentagon weapons developers to try to discern the relative maturity and capability of these technologies in order to ensure Virginia-class innovations maintain overmatch or superiority against them.
A significant essay published in “Covert Shores” as far back as 2017 analyzes earlier variants of the SHANG-class PLA submarines, stating that the boats do in fact have advanced quieting technologies. The essay says that, at this time, SHANG-class submarines were being built with “hidden enhancements such as improved sensors and better stealth.”
“As well as hidden enhancements such as improved sensors and possibly better stealth, the profile has changed markedly. The sail has been lengthened and a blended leading edge added, not unlike that on the U.S. Navy’s Virginia Class SSN. behind the sail the casing has been raised. ….. The raised section behind the sail has been refined, gradually becoming less pronounced. The final significant difference is the addition of an integral towed sonar array. This feeds out from the top of the upper vertical rudder. Additionally, an anechoic coating using small square rubber tiles has been applied,” The essay states.
The question then becomes … How much have these technologies been updated? To what extent do they rival advanced US Navy Virginia-class boats.
This being said, however, to quote Sun Tzu … “mass matters,” and any attack submarine deficit between the US and China in terms of fleet size could prove critical in any kind of large-scale engagement. More attack submarines will provide more firepower and enable the US Navy to attack in larger formations across wider areas of undersea terrain. The size of the Chinese Navy, to be specific, is such that it would likely require a greater amount of attack submarines for the US Navy to counter any amphibious assault on Taiwan or offensive action in the Pacific.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
