By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington D.C.) China’s third aircraft carrier is now prepping for “sea trials” and operational service, a development which likely generates no shortage of concern at the Pentagon given the pace at which the PRC is revving up shipbuilding and accelerating fleet expansion. China has in recent months and years been adding new shipyards and generating new classes of Type 075 amphibs, Type 055 quasi-stealthy new destroyers and of course new aircraft carriers as well.
It is certainly now well known that, in terms of pure numbers, China’s Naval fleet is larger than the US Navy, a fact however which does not necessarily translate into maritime overmatch or superiority. Nevertheless, the concern is significant given the pace at which China is adding new ships due to its pace of ship-construction and well-known civil-military fusion, and there are likely many unanswered questions about the extent to which the PLA Navy has the technological capability to truly challenge the US Navy.
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The Fujian
Nonetheless, China’s growing carrier fleet is concerning for a number of key reasons, both in terms of the PLA’s strategic approach and carrier design. China’s third aircraft carrier, called the Fujian, is progressing quickly toward operational service. In fact a January 2023 report in the Eurasian Times says China’s Fujian will conduct “sea trials” this year, a critical step toward full deployment and operational status.
The Fujian has a larger deck-space which, in a manner similar to the USS Ford, is likely designed to enable a much higher sortie rate and power-project capability when compared to its first two carriers. An even larger concern with the Fujian, however, may relate to its reported use of US Navy Ford-class-like electromagnetic catapult technology. Both China’s first two carriers incorporate steam catapults, yet the emerging 3rd Chinese carrier appears to “copy,” “mirror,” or “match” the US-Ford-class-like electromagnetic catapult. Reports from China’s Global Times Newspaper and South China Morning post report that the Fujian is indeed being built with an electromagnetic catapult.
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This is quite significant, as this possibility not only raises concerns about possible PLA technology “theft” and widely observed US “copycat” efforts but also indicates that China’s new carrier might be well positioned to better project power and maintain its Carrier Air Wing. US Navy Electromagnetic Air Launch Systems (EMALs), not only allow for smoother, more efficient launches but also greatly reduce stress or wear and tear on airframes, something which extends service life, power projection and sustained aircraft performance. The exact extent of the technological sophistication being built into electromagnetic propulsion for China’s Fujian may not be known, yet it is likely getting attention at the Pentagon an area of concern.
Alongside concerns of potential US copycat efforts the technological capabilities of the Fujian, China also appears to be replicating US Navy carrier training and war-preparation tactics. For instance, not long after the US Navy broke new ground with integrated “dual-carrier” operations in the Pacific, the PLA Navy sent its first two carriers into the South China Sea area “together” in what could be seen as a transparent effort to “match” US Navy capability. Dual-carrier operations are quite significant in that they of course enable a much larger “power projection” capacity in terms of aircraft numbers, wider envelope of attack and vastly improved “networking” or ship-to-ship operational coordination. Should China possess this ability as well, it could certainly impact the threat equation.
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In a larger strategic sense, the PLA’s effort to fast-track an expansion of its carrier fleet fully aligns with the PRC’s stated ambition to become a “dominant” global power by 2049 at their centennial or even sooner. This ambition, widely discussed in Pentagon reports on China, raises concern about China’s ability to expand its power-projection beyond the Pacific, expanding it into the realm of US-like global power projection.
This effort on the part of the Chinese is indeed quite significant given the PRC’s well known efforts to expand its global reach through military bases in Djibouti on the horn of Africa and economic and military expansion across other key global areas. Therefore, while the PRC carrier fleet is currently well below the US Navy’s 11-carrier global power projection ability, the pace of construction and potential technological capacity of China’s growing fleet is likely a serious concern to the Pentagon. Finally, there is likely Pentagon concern about China’s emerging carrier-launched J-31 5th-generation stealth fighter jet which appears to be a transparent effort to match the US Navy’s F-35C.
However, the F-35C is now operational and China clearly lacks and F-35B-like vertical take off F-35B able to launch from amphibs, the emergence of this aircraft is doubtless problematic for the US Navy for the simple reason that it may put China on track to eventually deploy a threatening fleet of sea-launched 5th-gen aircraft. This is something they simply cannot do today, as the US Navy appears to operate with a massive ocean-launched 5th-generation stealth aircraft advantage, something which could arguably save Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19 FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
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