By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
How fast can China build a small fleet of nuclear-powered, high-deck aircraft carriers enabling the PRC to massively project global power and presence and also threaten the US in terms of influence and maritime combat capacity?
The question may not have a clear answer, yet it is one likely to generate much attention at the Pentagon. China has added a second shipyard, is known to be fast-tracking or quickly producing new amphibious assault ships, destroyers and carriers. Also, there is much discussion about the well-known Chinese civil-military “fusion” enabling their government to massively expedite production of new warships.
Carriers are no exception and are in fact a huge priority for the Chinese. The People’s Liberation Army – Navy has already copied the US in the Pacific and conducted “dual carrier” combat training exercises in the Pacific, and an observers eye look at their newest carriers suggest there may be a US “copycat” or design “rip-off” dynamic as China’s new carrier looks like the USS Ford.
China is planning a massive 85,000 ton, 40-plus aircraft-strong high-tech carrier engineered with an electromagnetic catapult and a much greater attack range than its first carriers. Such a move is part of an aggressive, multi-year Naval modernization initiative to help the country emerge as a leading global power.
China’s third aircraft carrier, called the Fujian is now prepping for “sea trials” and operational service, a development which likely generates no shortage of concern at the Pentagon given the pace at which the PRC is revving up shipbuilding and accelerating fleet expansion. China has in recent months and years been adding new shipyards and generating new classes of Type 075 amphibs. Type 055 quasi-stealthy new destroyers and of course new aircraft carriers as well.
It is certainly now well known that, in terms of pure numbers, China’s Naval fleet is larger than the US Navy, a fact however which does not necessarily translate into maritime overmatch or superiority. Nevertheless, the concern is significant given the pace at which China is adding new ships due to its pace of ship-construction and well-known civil-military fusion, and there are likely many unanswered questions about the extent to which the PLA Navy has the technological capability to truly challenge the US Navy.
Fujian to be Operational Soon
Nonetheless, China’s growing carrier fleet is concerning for a number of key reasons, both in terms of the PLA’s strategic approach and carrier design. The Fujian, is progressing quickly toward operational service. In fact a January 2023 report in the Eurasian Times says China’s Fujian will conduct “sea trials” this year, a critical step toward full deployment and operational status.
The Fujian has a larger deck-space which, in a manner similar to the USS Ford, is likely designed to enable a much higher sortie rate and power-project capability when compared to its first two carriers. An even larger concern with the Fujian, however, may relate to its reported use of US Navy Ford-class-like electromagnetic catapult technology. Both China’s first two carriers incorporate steam catapults, yet the emerging 3rd Chinese carrier appears to “copy,” “mirror,” or “match” the US-Ford-class-like electromagnetic catapult. Reports from China’s Global Times Newspaper and South China Morning post report that the Fujian is indeed being built with an electromagnetic catapult.
This is quite significant, as this possibility not only raises concerns about possible PLA technology “theft” and widely observed US “copycat” efforts but also indicates that China’s new carrier might be well positioned to better project power and maintain its Carrier Air Wing. US Navy Electromagnetic Air Launch Systems (EMALs), not only allow for smoother, more efficient launches but also greatly reduce stress or wear and tear on airframes, something which extends service life, power projection and sustained aircraft performance. The exact extent of the technological sophistication being built into electromagnetic propulsion for China’s Fujian may not be known, yet it is likely getting attention at the Pentagon an area of concern.
Alongside concerns of potential US copycat efforts the technological capabilities of the Fujian, China also appears to be replicating US Navy carrier training and war-preparation tactics. For instance, not long after the US Navy broke new ground with integrated “dual-carrier” operations in the Pacific, the PLA Navy sent its first two carriers into the South China Sea area “together” in what could be seen as a transparent effort to “match” US Navy capability. Dual-carrier operations are quite significant in that they of course enable a much larger “power projection” capacity in terms of aircraft numbers, wider envelope of attack and vastly improved “networking” or ship-to-ship operational coordination. Should China possess this ability as well, it could certainly impact the threat equation.
In a larger strategic sense, the PLA’s effort to fast-track an expansion of its carrier fleet fully aligns with the PRC’s stated ambition to become a “dominant” global power by 2049 at their centennial or even sooner. This ambition, widely discussed in Pentagon reports on China, raises concern about China’s ability to expand its power-projection beyond the Pacific, expanding it into the realm of US-like global power projection.
This effort on the part of the Chinese is indeed quite significant given the PRC’s well known efforts to expand its global reach through military bases in Djibouti on the horn of Africa and economic and military expansion across other key global areas. Therefore, while the PRC carrier fleet is currently well below the US Navy’s 11-carrier global power projection ability, the pace of construction and potential technological capacity of China’s growing fleet is likely a serious concern to the Pentagon. Finally, there is likely Pentagon concern about China’s emerging carrier-launched J-31 5th-generation stealth fighter jet which appears to be a transparent effort to match the US Navy’s F-35C.
However, the F-35C is now operational and China clearly lacks and F-35B-like vertical take off F-35B able to launch from amphibs, the emergence of this aircraft is doubtless problematic for the US Navy for the simple reason that it may put China on track to eventually deploy a threatening fleet of sea-launched 5th-gen aircraft. This is something they simply cannot do today, as the US Navy appears to operate with a massive ocean-launched 5th-generation stealth aircraft advantage, something which could arguably save Taiwan in the event of a Chi
nese invasion.
Citing that the Chinese Navy, now having 360 ships, has already well surpassed the U.S. Navy’s 297 ships in terms of sheer size, a 2020 Congressional report maps out China’s ambitious aircraft carrier modernization plan. Having already launched its second carrier, the Shangdong, the Chinese have embarked upon the construction of a newer, far-more capable third aircraft carrier, according to a May, 2020 Congressional Research Service Report, “China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities.”
The People’s Liberation Army – Navy, the report says, will likely have 400 ships and at three-to-four aircraft carriers by 2025. Following the construction of its first indigenously-built carrier, the second carrier in the fleet overall, modeled after its ski-jump-configured Ukrainian-built Liaoning, the PLAN has embarked upon a larger, flatter, more modern carrier platform with smooth, longer-range electromagnetic catapults similar to the U.S. Ford-class. An electromagnetic catapult generates a fluid, smooth launch which is different from a steam-powered “shotgun” type take off. Also, an electromagnetic catapult extends an attack envelope well beyond what China’s existing ski jump launch makes possible.
The third carrier, identified as a Type 002 carrier, is reported to have a displacement of 80,000 tons and be able to operate a carrier air wing of more than 40 fixed-wing fighters. While conventionally powered, as opposed to the U.S. Navy’s nuclear-powered carriers, the Type 002 will greatly expand China’s air attack range and power-projection capability on a truly global scale. The Congressional report points out that such an approach appears clearly geared toward strengthening an expeditionary posture for international operations, explaining that land-launched fixed wing aircraft can easily reach Taiwan and other possible Southeast Asian targets from mainland China. This kind of forward presence will clearly enable China to exert power and influence on a global stage and exact an impact in areas it has been targeting for political and economic expansion, such as Africa.
Interestingly, China has been planning a follow-on, nuclear-powered Type 003 carrier which, should it come to fruition, could rival the U.S. carrier 100,000-ton displacement size and power projection capability. The CRS report says Chinese media reports indicate that the Type 003 may be on hold for the moment.
China is expected to arm its current and future carriers with its J-15 Flying Shark fighter and will, according to most estimations, add a carrier-launched variant of its 5th-Gen J-31 stealth fighter.
Interestingly, the CRS report explains that fast-expanding Chinese Naval power may be a key reason why the U.S.Navy is now working on engineering greater numbers of unmanned vessels to conduct dispersed, or dis-aggregated missions less vulnerable to a massive frontal Naval attack from China. The Navy calls it a Distributed Maritime Operations concept intended to leverage long-range sensors and weapons, multi-domain networking, forward operating surveillance, and precision weaponry wherein small, mobile, multi-mission unmanned systems disembark from large “motherships” operating in a command and control capacity. This not only allows larger manned vessels to remain at safer standoff distances but further enables armed attack, amphibious operations, and long-strike air support. Such a tactical approach, it seems, might easily be intended as a way to provide some strategic answers to the massive, growing international threat presented by the Chinese Navy.
New Chinese ShipYard
China’s second aircraft carrier is now operational, and its third could launch from the shipyard in early 2022. The Chinese Navy is also fast-tracking a new fleet of Type 075 amphibious assault ships which appear similar to the U.S. Navy’s America-class landing helicopter assault ships. The PLAN is also adding new destroyers and other surface ships at an alarming rate.
Now, the Chinese government-backed Global Times newspaper reports that China is progressing quickly building a new shipyard. The first stage of construction is expected to be complete in late 2023.
“The new site is expected to allow China to build a range of warships – including amphibious assault ships, amphibious landing ships and frigates – faster, better and more efficiently,” according to the newspaper.
The shipyard raises an interesting question about fleet size versus quality. Many maintain that even if the Chinese do now operate a larger number of warships, that does not mean the PLAN has surpassed the U.S. Navy. A superior warship in terms of sensors, weapons, computing, and range could be well-positioned to outperform a larger number of less capable ships.
While China may not match U.S. Navy’s technological superiority despite how many ships it has, there is broad discussion that it is closing the gap quickly. Given this scenario, building a larger and much more threatening group of new warships which are also competitive technologically presents what could be seen as an unprecedented threat.
As an example of quality, the Chinese are also adding a new generation of destroyers called the Type 055. While particulars and many details related to the technology and weapons on board the ship are unavailable, the ship appears to be a mix between both the stealthy Zumwalt-class destroyers and high-tech DDG Flight III Arleigh Burke-class destroyers.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in /lComparative Literature from Columbia University