By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Chinese military has now demonstrated aerial refueling in waters over the Pacific with its YU-20 Tanker and a J-15 carrier-based fighter jet, an extremely significant development which could over time greatly impact the strategic and tactical circumstances in the Pacific theater.
For many years now, the Chinese Liberation Army Air Force has been working to convert its fleet of emerging Y-20 cargo planes into tankers, an effort which appears to be coming to fruition.
“A YU-20 tanker aircraft of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force and a J-15 carrier-based fighter jet of the PLA Navy have conducted their first in-flight refueling exercise. Experts said on Wednesday that this exercise has displayed the systematic integration among different PLA services and will enhance the capabilities of Chinese aircraft carriers,” the Chinese-backed Global Times newspaper reports in a recent story.
US & Allied Tactical Air Superiority in the Pacific
This development, should it continue to mature in coming years and expand into a larger fleet of tankers, could begin to erode the massive US air superiority advantage in the Pacific. With forward positioned US Navy amphibs, each capable of sailing with as many as 15 F-35B, and carrier-based F-35Cs, its has not been unrealistic to posit that the US Navy and its allies might be positioned to counter, destroy or fully stop a Chinese amphibious assault on Taiwan. The USS America, for instance, the Navy’s first America-class amphibious assault ship, has already deployed with as many as 13 F-35Bs.
This is particularly true if the US uses its advanced fleet of attack submarines and Japan and South Korea are able to marshall an F-35 force as well.
Japan has in recent years made a massive, 35-billion F-35 buy, and both Singapore and South Korea operate F-35s as well. Therefore, it seems clear that, should the US Navy be sufficiently forward positioned, the US and its allies are likely to quickly establish air superiority. The presence of networked 5th-generation US Navy and allied aircraft would, it seems, be well positioned to achieve overmatch above the PLA Navy and Air Force in the air. Chinese J-20s can only be launched from land and the J-31 carrier-launched 5th-generation aircraft does not seem to exist in sufficient numbers. Therefore the PLA would likely have trouble establishing sufficient air support above an amphibious attack. This is likely why the US Navy continues to increase its forward presence in the Pacific with things like dual-carrier operations and regular multi-national combat training and preparation in the Pacific theater.
However, all of this context is critical to this key development, should China succeed in closing its air-power deficit in the Pacific theater. The Y-20 has existed for years, yet it is only in more recent years that the Chinese have been converting them into tankers. What this means is that, should this tanker fleet grow quickly, and the carrier-launched 5th-generation J-31 emerge in larger numbers, the PLA might well be able to present a credible challenge to US and allies air superiority in the Pacific. Specifically, if J-20 land launched 5th-generation aircraft, which do seem to exist in sufficient numbers, are able to double their range and challenge US and allied air power over the ocean, the air superiority could change. Certainly it will take a while for China to close this deficit, however the PLA is known to manufacture weapons platforms very quickly with its civil-military fusion and industrial base, therefore the US air power advantage may close, or at least be more threatened quickly, depending upon Chinese progress. This would only be true in the event that Chinese J-20 and J-31 aircraft are truly capable of challenging US 5th-gen aircraft, something which is not yet known or fully established. Nevertheless China’s emerging tanker-fleet and fighter-jet range is likely taken very seriously by the Pentagon, as it could greatly impact the tactical and strategic circumstance in the Pacific, as well as the overall balance of power in the region.
A tanker aircraft such as a Y-20 could potentially double the reach of land-launched J-20s, carrier launched J-31s and Chinese land and carrier-launched 4th-generation aircraft, a circumstance potentially capable of rivaling US allied air dominance in the area.
Y-20 Cargo Plane Can Also Transport Chinese T99 Tanks
With the arrival of the Y-20, The People’s Liberation Army will soon be able to airlift full-scale Chinese Main Battle Tanks on board an upgraded Y-20 cargo plane, an aircraft now being outfitted with a first-of-its-kind domestically built engine.
A new WS-20 equipped Y-20 would, according to the Chinese-government backed Global Times newspaper, be able to operate with much more thrust and fuel as well as be able to take off and land on shorter runways. An increased ability to operate in more austere circumstances certainly increases the tactical scenarios in which a Y-20 could help deploy troops, equipment, supplies, weapons and even large platforms such as tanks.
The new plane can reportedly air-transport China’s T99 main-battle tank, a possibility which greatly exacerbates current threats to Taiwan. The aircraft is emerging at a European Airshow in Austria called Airpower22, as reported in the Chinese government-backed Global Times newspaper.
Multi-Domain Chinese Threat
There is yet another potentially concerning tactical and strategic threat, which is the apparent extent to which the PLA seems to be copying, replicating and US military multi-domain operational capability. Not only can the Y-20 transport massive amounts of lethal land-power such as its tanks, but the Chinese paper makes specific reference to the PLA’s ability to “converge” platforms.
“During their first in-flight refueling exercise, a J-15 fighter jet accurately connected its refuel probe to a YU-20 aerial tanker’s drogue, as shown in the documentary, which did not give the location of the exercise other than showing that it took place over the sea.It was a convergence of different theoretical systems and a cooperation between different combat platforms,” the Chinese paper says.
For many years, the Chinese military appears to not only copy or steal US military technologies but also replicate US military tactics through multi-domain training exercises, “networked,” joint combat preparations and air-surface-land operational synergy. It may not be clear just how evolved the PLA may be with this networking, and the extent to which it can rival the US Joint All Domain Command and Control effort, yet the trend is concerning and quite visible. Members of Congress have noticed as well, as Rep. Rob Wittman, member of the Armed Services and Tactical Air and Land committees, told Warrior in a recent discussion about the now-ongoing bi-partisan China threat committee on the hill.
Y-20 Cargo Plane Can Also Transport Chinese T99 Tanks
An ability to transport a Type T99 main battle tank would be massively significant to any kind of ground war effort, especially since the U.S. Army M1Abrams tanks need to deploy overseas by boat. Air deployment of a massive tank exponentially decreases deployment attack timelines and would enable a heavy mech
anized force to strike on a vastly different timetable.
“With the domestically made engines, the Y-20 can become capable of long-range or intercontinental flight while carrying heavy equipment like main battle tanks without stopping at a transit airfield for refueling,” a Global Times report from several years ago states.
The U.S. Army’s massive emphasis upon rapid reaction deployment possibilities, something which could be described as an ability to optimize expeditionary warfare, rests in large measure upon the logistical reality that heavy mechanized vehicles such as an Abrams simply cannot travel by air. This circumstance helps explain why the Army is fast-tracking an air-droppable Mobile Protected Firepower light tank vehicle. Should major threats or some kind of large scale land war quickly become urgently needed, getting armored forces to the fight would become an instant priority.
China Sites Military Threat
In addition to discussing its tactical abilities, the Chinese-government-backed newspaper specifically cites the military advantages this development can provide the the PLA military. Even more specifically, the paper mentions Taiwan threats and what it calls “interventionist” forces.
“PLA Navy aircraft carriers, including the Liaoning and the Shandong, frequently carry out far sea exercises beyond the first island chain in the West Pacific, sometimes in waters to the east of the island of Taiwan, from which they can surround the “Taiwan independence” secessionist forces and block external interference forces,” China’s paper states.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Master’s Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
