Could Selling the F-35 to Taiwan Save The Island from Chinese Rule?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

Should China succeed with the often-discussed “fait accompli” rapid annexation of Taiwan designed to capture the island faster than any defenders can respond, any massive, multi-national, integrated effort to “liberate” Taiwan could  likely be successful, yet not without an extremely high “cost” in terms of human lives. 

The US, Taiwanese and allied deterrence posture has correctly focused upon refining an ability to “see,” “counter,” or “destroy” any Chinese aerial or amphibious attack “before” it can succeed capturing Taiwan.  This explains why the US Navy focuses so intensely on “forward presence” in the Pacific, allied training operations in the region and the ability to project 5th-generation air power from the sea.  It seems reasonable to think any effort to counter a Chinese attack on Taiwan would likely leverage US and allied “F-35” air superiority. 

It is likely safe to assume that the Pentagon might consider an F-35 sale to Taiwan and potentially too provocative to the Chinese Communist Party, however the merits of such a move seem difficult to question.

Congress has yet to approve the sale of the F-35 to Taiwan, yet several key US allies have quickly been adding the jet such as Poland, Germany, Finland and Switzerland.

The multi-national community of F-35 partners is growing so quickly that some are starting to regard the F-35 as the 5th-gen stealth fighter for the free world. When specifically considering the Pacific, additional F-35s and 5th-generation aircraft could be extremely impactful as a deterrent.

It would certainly make sense for Taiwan to operate F-35s along with Singapore, Japan, Australia, and South Korea, given that 5th-generation air superiority is arguably the largest advantage the U.S. and its allies would have over China.

The Taiwanese interest is indeed there, as an essay from The Diplomat from as far back as 2018 cites Taiwanese leaders expressing interest in acquiring the jet.