by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Wargames regularly entertain surprise attack scenarios wherein China quickly annexes Taiwan before any potential defenders could intervene, by launching a salvo of fast-strike ballistic missiles. A series of these kinds of strikes, would be intended to overwhelm Taiwanese air defenses, cripple critical infrastructure, command and control systems, weapons and land defenses. Taiwan is merely 100 miles from the Chinese mainland, so short, medium and long-range ballistic missiles would not have far to travel, and the People’s Liberation Army is well known to operate a fast-growing arsenal. An interesting research paper from Tufts University Fletcher of Law and Diplomacy cites that indeed the PRC deploys as many as 2,000 ballistic missiles to include DF-11s and DF-15s.
A salvo of attacking PRC ballistic missiles would be designed to render Taiwan simply unable to launch a defense against an air and amphibious assault to take over the island. Such a scenario, described in the Pentagon’s annual China report as a “fait accompli,”
Even the best air defenses, and Taiwan is known to have some, would be ill equipped to stop a massive salvo simply by virtue of volume, as there might not be enough precision interceptors to track and knock out a salvo of hundreds of missiles. Defending against this very scenario is likely a main reason why Taiwan is known to operate some of the most advanced networks of air defense systems the world has ever seen.
“Taiwan has constructed perhaps the most robust and sophisticated air and missile defense network (SAM) in the world. This includes not only the Patriot missile system purchased from the United States, but also a large number of Taiwan’s indigenous anti-air missile systems and extensive investments into early-warning radars and other defensive measures,” the Fletcher School research paper writes.
There is yet another reason why defending against an incoming salvo of ballistic missiles would prove critical in any engagement with China, and it relates to airpower. An interesting wargame conducted earlier this year by the Rand corporation found that indeed a US and allied air power advantage might be eroded or heavily compromised by a destructive opening salvo of ballistic missiles designed to destroy 5th-generation aircraft on the ground before they take-off.
This exact scenario was entertained in the wargame conducted by the Rand Corporation, and sure enough initial findings determined that, during a Chinese attack in the Pacific, the US lost over “one hundred 5th-generation fighter aircraft, mostly on the ground, due to missile strikes” These findings, as explained in a Rand essay on the wargame by Yiber Bajraktari and Jim Mitre, Vice President and Director of Global and Emerging Risks, highlighted key points of emphasis wherein adjustments could be made to mitigate this damage.
The wargame study, which was extremely nuanced and complex, identified a wide range of tactics and techniques designed to greatly decrease these kinds of losses. In total there were 17 recommended solutions, the most impactful of which was identified as information dominance. The solutions, which were tested and shown to be effective, involved implementing cloud technology, optimizing decoys, “smart” sea mines, multi-domain maneuver and fitting multiple networks into a single device. All of these techniques were aligned through the establishment of one huge priority …. Networking and information dominance. The Rand essay writes that the 17 solutions were, among other things, primarily focused on “providing the Defense Department and allied forces with an information advantage over China.”
The Rand wargame also found that adapting, producing and integrating existing innovations proved equally or more valuable than uncovering new, “disruptive” technologies. While new discoveries will always remain critical to the future, US military operational effectiveness in the near term would be well served by making efforts to operationalize existing successful innovations, the study found.
“The Defense Department—it has an “innovation adoption problem” not an “innovation problem.” But the path to adoption is easier when working from established technologies rather than those that are in a nascent stage of development,” the Rand essay writes.
Warrior Maven Video: When and How Will China Attack Taiwan
Implementing the 17 solutions proved to generate a significant and promising impact upon subsequent outcomes of the wargame once adaptations were made.
“When implementing the 17 solutions, an estimated 50 percent fewer losses of U.S. fifth-generation fighters occurred in the first five days of hostilities. Synergistic effects of multiple solutions led to an increase in Chinese fighter losses by an estimated 70 percent in the same time period,” the Rand essay writes.
Protecting ground-based 5th-generation air power, therefore, is a critical reason why Patriot missile batteries and SAMS are so critical along the Western coast of Taiwan.
Preserving a 5th-gen air power advantage
Wargame findings which decrease 5th-generation aircraft losses do appear quite promising, given the US and allied air-advantage over China.
It takes little imagination to recognize that the US and its allies currently appear to have an air power advantage when it comes to a potential great power confrontation with China, given the sheer volume of operational F-35s throughout the Pacific theater.
Australia, Singapore and South Korea all have operational F-35s in impactful numbers. Perhaps of greatest consequence for the Pacific, Japan recently made a $35 billion F-35 buy and is currently flying and testing its emerging F-35B short-take-off-and-landing variants from its warships. Added to this equation, US Navy America-class amphibious assault ships are capable of deploying with as many as 20 F-35Bs, a scenario which allows the US Navy to forward position impactful numbers of 5th-generation fighters close enough to respond to any Chinese attack from the ocean.
The US air advantage is significant when it comes to 5th-generation, because while the PLA Air Force does operate an impactful fleet of 5th-generation J-20s, they are land-launched and arguably not well positioned to counter a larger, multi-national force of networked F-35s. China also does not have an ocean-launched 5th-generation aircraft apart from a few prototypes of its emerging carrier-launched J-31 5th-generation fighter.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and the Defense Editor for the National Interest. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
