By Jim Morris, Warrior Vice President, News
China is well behind the US and Russia when it comes to nuclear weapons – but that may not last long.
According to a report released Monday, China is expanding its nuclear forces faster than any other country. And in less than a decade, according to a Swedish think tank, it could have more intercontinental ballistic missiles than anyone else.
The report came from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. Its annual study found that the nine nuclear-armed countries are increasing the number and types of nuclear weapons in development. SIPRI also says those countries are deepening their reliance on nuclear deterrence.
The study estimates there are now more than 12,000 nuclear warheads worldwide – almost 90 percent of which are either Russian or American. But the institute says that for the first time, China is believed to have some nuclear weapons on high operational alert.
China is estimated to have increased its stockpile from 410 warheads in January 2023 to 500 a year later. “Depending on how it decides to structure its forces, China could potentially have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as either Russia of the USA by the turn of the decade,” the study says, “although its stockpile of nuclear warheads is still expected to remain much smaller than the stockpiles of either of those two countries.”
Earlier this year, the US intelligence community released its annual threat assessment and said China has probably built more than 300 new ICBM silos, and has loaded at least some of them with missiles.
“As its nuclear force grows, Beijing’s confidence in its nuclear deterrent probably will bolster the PRC’s resolve and intensify conventional conflicts,” the report concluded.
That has prompted the Pentagon to ramp up its Next-Generation Interceptor effort. The goal is to build a new, more capable ICBM killer to succeed the current Ground-Based Interceptor. Development deals have been awarded to two teams – one a venture between Northrop Grumman and Raytheon, the other a tie-up between Lockheed Martin and Aerojet Rocketdyne.
Former Army Futures Command Commander Ret. Gen. John Murray
The expectation is that a new interceptor could be deployed as soon as 2027.
Meanwhile, the US is developing a new ICBM to replace its aging Minuteman III, which has been in service for more than a half century. The LGM-35A Sentinel, whose prime contractor is Northrop Grumman, was originally scheduled for initial operational capability in 2029. That’s been pushed back by about two years.
And it’s not just a new missile that’s being built. The program includes an overhaul of the silos, control centers and underground living quarters for the crews. Plus, the Sentinel is all digital and is replacing an analog weapon. That brings paradigm-changing speed and networking advantages but also requires additional security and hardening.
Earlier this month, two Minutemen were test-fired from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California, a demonstration that despite delays in the Sentinel program, the US still has a functional ICBM.
The Pentagon is currently subjecting the Sentinel program to what’s known as a cost breach review because of cost and schedule overruns as defined by the Nunn-McCurdy Act. The secretary of defense has to certify that no alternatives exist to the program, or it will have to be shut down.
The Pentagon insists the Sentinel needs to be built. The Defense Department’s undersecretary for acquisition and sustainment, William LaPlante, told a Senate subcommittee last month the US must still have the third leg of the nuclear triad.
“The modernization of our triad is the top priority of the Defense Department,” he said.
