To state the obvious, the only thing worse than blundering into an unnecessary and catastrophic war would be to lose that war. As in sports, however, it is reasonably common in warfare for the underdog to prevail. Few thought that Japan could defeat Russia in 1904, but the Russian Fleet was sent to the bottom of Tsushima Strait, defying most predictions. Likewise, the battle tested French Army with superior tanks was thought to thoroughly outclass its German opponent in spring 1940. And who would have thought little, pesky North Vietnam could take on the United States and win in the mid-1960s? As one seriously considers the tragic possibility of war between the United States and North Korea, some due humility might help U.S. military planners to foresee potential strategic pitfalls.
As is well known, any land war on the Korean Peninsula would be a grueling and grotesquely bloody fight, given the concentration of forces that are well dug in and the difficult terrain that would prevent dramatic maneuvers. Naturally, planners are eager to consider options in the maritime domain, wherein North Korean forces are thought to be rather weak. True, North Korean submariners would seem to have demonstrated a modicum of skill in destroying the South Korean frigate Cheonan back in 2010, but such feats would be harder when U.S. and South Korean forces are on full alert. Indeed, it has been suggested that—assuming Chinese and Russian naval forces do not intervene—U.S. and allied fleets could operate with near impunity off North Korea’s coast to deliver hammer blows, whether by missile, air, or even insertions of special forces.