China Will Have 1,000 Nuclear Warheads by 2030

By Peter Huessey, PhD, Warrior Senior Nuclear Weapons Analyst

The Chinese nuclear buildup, according to the former Commander of US Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard, is both “breathtaking” and “accelerating.” It poses a new and unique danger to the US, requiring the nation to simultaneously deter two nuclear-armed peer adversaries.

Detractors raise three challenges to the Admiral’s concerns. First, the Chinese buildup is not extensive. Second, the Chinse cannot technically build such a big force in the projected timeframe. Third, there is nothing the Chinese threaten that justifies the level of concern. Let’s examine each concern in order.

The Chinese Buildup

According to a new Department of Defense (DoD) report on the military power of China, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) nuclear arsenal grew from 200 to over 500 warheads in just the past four years and will hit 1,000 and by 2030 and 1,500 by 2035. The 150 percent growth since 2020 is thus in the books and unprecedented.

As for the future, the key driving factor is the 300–360 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos that were built over the past few years. The silos are able to hold either the DF-31 or the DF-41 ICBM—capable of carrying three to ten warheads, respectively.

The additional major factor is the four new strategic nuclear-armed submarines (SSBN) projected to be fully operational by 2030, each with 20 missiles and three to six warheads per missile. The US Pacific Command says the submarines already in the Chinese fleet are currently being fitted with multiple warheads.