Could China’s Growing ICBM Arsenal Inspire a First Strike?

By Christian Orr, Former Air Force Security Officer

(Washington DC) A few month back, the ever-vigilant Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation hosted its annual China Forum in Washington, DC, highlighting Beijing’s malign behavior in the areas of security, economics, and human rights. Among the guest speakers was Russell Hsiao, Executive Director of the Global Taiwan Institute.

Russell gave a detailed account of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA’s) military exercises Aug. 4. The PLA designated six closure areas and fired 11 ballistic miles, four of which overflew Taiwan. Hsiao added some historical perspective by noting that the PLA fired a mere eight ballistic missiles during its 1995-1996 “missile diplomacy” shenanigans.

Video Above: Would the conflict over Taiwan escalate into a nuclear war between China and Taiwan?

The good news is that Taiwan has fairly robust missile capabilities of its own, as noted last year by my 19FortyFive colleagues Steve Balestrieri and Brent Eastwood. That said, China’s missile program is obviously something that needs to be taken seriously, and now is a good time to take a look at their missile arsenal. With the hope of expanding this into a multipart series, today I will focus on the deadliest and most powerful arrows in China’s quiver, their intercontinental ballistic missiles.

F-5 (Dong Feng-5 / CSS-4)

This is the biggest ballistic boy on Beijing’s block, with a launch weight of 183,000 kilograms and a payload of 3,000 to 4,000 kg. It has a long reach, with a range of 13,000 kilometers, and the F-5 is the oldest of China’s homegrown ICBMs, first entering operational status in 1981. Strictly silo-based, it is capable of delivering large nuclear payloads across the United States and Western Europe.

DF-41 (Dong Feng-41 / CSS-X-20)

This will be the second-biggest entry in the Chinese ICBM arsenal, with a launch weight of 80,000 kg and a payload of 2,500 kg. It has the longest range of the bunch at 15,000 km.