by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington DC) A cutting-edge Congressional report calls for the immediate expansion and acceleration of US nuclear weapons modernization and deterrence, citing what is now understood as a “two-nuclear-peer” environment including both Russia and China.
“A number of commissioners believe it is inevitable that the size of the U.S. nuclear stockpile and the number of delivery systems should increase,” the detailed study, called “The Final Report of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States,” states.
The Congressional Commission was authored by a bi-partisan committee of experts tasked with analyzing US nuclear weapons plans with a mind to the fast-evolving long-term threat equation.
The goal of the Strategic Posture Commission was to examine the long-term strategic posture of the United States. The results of their report detailed the gravity of the situation we face and emphasized that the current trajectory of the US nuclear deterrent is insufficient to deter the looming Chinese and Russian threat,” U.S. Representative Mike Rogers (R-AL), Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, said in a written statement.
While Russia’s nuclear arsenal is both reasonably well known and long-standing, particular their massive arsenal of tactical, low-yield weapons and emerging nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons, the Commission is clear to point out that the People’s Republic of China is by no estimation a “lesser” threat of any kind. As part of this equation, the Congressional report specifically calls for the Pentagon to place nuclear weapons in the Pacific theater. Certainly US Navy nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines can secretly patrol dark waters of the Pacific within striking range of China, yet land-based ICBMs in Asia might make sense as a way to supplement nuclear-capable B-2s now stationed in Guam.
Kendall: China First Strike Nuclear Capability
Such a maneuver may make sense given that the PLA has in recent years become known for building hundreds of ICBM silos throughout mainland China, a development which led Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall to raise serious concern about China’s nuclear ambitions, saying the PRC is developing a massive “first-strike” nuclear capability. As far back as 2021, former Commander of US Strategic Command Adm. Chaz Richard said commercially available satellite photos were showing as many as 120 ICBM silos on mainland China. Added to this concern, the Pentagon’s annual China report has in recent years cited a serious concern that China appears to be on pace to double its amount of nuclear warhead within just the next five to ten years.
“Most of their weapons have been mobile ICBMs, so this is a very destabilizing move and I am not sure they understand the risk they are taking. Whether they intend it or not … their move creates a first-strike capability. If they continue down this path to increase their ICBM force, then that is a de facto first-strike capability,” Kendall told reporters at the Air Force Association Symposium in 2022.
China’s nuclear weapons expansion could be described as “staggering” as it also include the PLA Navy’s undersea nuclear attack capabilities. China’s “Jin-class” ballistic missile submarines are now being armed with newer, much longer range JL-3 nuclear missiles capable of traveling 4,000 miles to attack Hawaii and the continental US.
PLA Nuclear Weapons Able to Hit US
This threat is compounded by a significant recognition cited earlier this year in the Pentagon’s 2023 “Military and Security Development Regarding the People’s Republic of China” report, which specifies that China’s CSS4 Mod 2 and Mod3 are able to reach 13,000km. This places ICBMs fired from China well within range of striking the continental US.
Two other nuclear missiles cited in the report can also reach the US from China, the DF-41 and CSS 10 Mod 2 able to reach 12,000km and 11,200km respectively. The distance between Beijing and Los Angeles is 10,084km, placing California within direct reach of all three of these Chinese nuclear missiles. China is also developing a precision nuclear strike capability with its DF-26 medium range anti-ship ballistic missile able to travel as far as 2,000 miles.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
