Could Chinese Ballistic Missiles Attack & Destroy Guam?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington DC) There is no shortage of hype and concern regarding China’s growing arsenal of cruise and ballistic missiles in position to threaten U.S. territories and assets in the Pacific theater.

Yet, the full extent of the threat seems somewhat unknown as there are a number of critical variables to consider.

Threats to U.S. Bases and Territories

Initially, one might wonder how U.S. territories such as Guam might avoid being quickly destroyed, overwhelmed or simply taken over by a salvo of incoming Chinese missiles. Given the sheer size of China’s ballistic missile arsenal, avoiding assault might not be as easily achievable as it might initially seem.

Long-range Chinese ballistic missiles such as the hypersonic DF-27 can reportedly reach ranges of 8,000km, a distance that places them well within reach of hitting Guam from the 2.952-mile distance from mainland China. However, how many DF-27s does China have on hand? What kind of guidance systems do they operate with and how precise is their targeting technology?

A report from May 2023 in the South China Morning Post says the hypersonic DF-27 has been in existence for several years, however, the size of its arsenal seems unknown. Clearly, a long-range hypersonic threat such as the DF-27 presents serious challenges for U.S. assets and territory in Guam. However, the number of DF-27s in China’s arsenal coupled with Beijing’s targeting ability and guidance technology seem unknown.

Located nearly 3,000 miles off the coast of mainland China, Guam would be hard to hit with land-based launchers. China’s famous DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile, for example, can reportedly travel 2,000 miles.