If Faced With Cancer or War Loss … Would Putin Launch Nuclear Attack?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

The question of just how dangerous Putin may be when it comes to nuclear weapons is one of those which likely lends itself to endless speculation given the implications of such as possible decision. 

The fundamental question here may ultimately be a psychological one. Is Putin suicidal? One would not think so given his long history of sustaining power and seeking expansion, and clearly any decision to “launch” a nuclear strike could quickly result in the elimination of this government, rule … and life.  

Is there some kind of winnable limited nuclear engagement Putin might think possible?  Fundamentally, like many people it is likely that, despite any potential outcome, Putin is likely to be driven by a survival instinct. 

What if Putin has cancer? Rumors abound. How might a condition such as cancer impact his thinking on Ukraine?

One key reason some observers have thought that Putin ultimately would not launch nuclear weapons is due to a fundamental survival instinct and the wish to remain in power. It is likely that Russian use of nuclear weapons could quickly result in the complete and total destruction of Putin and his regime.

Therefore, regardless of whether Putin estimates he might have a possibility to win a tactical or limited nuclear engagement, many believe he simply would not risk his own elimination. Putin is known to be autocratic and cruel, but there is not much speculation that he is suicidal. Launching nuclear weapons would, in effect, amount to a suicidal impulse of some kind from Putin, something which many believe does not exist given his ability to maintain and preserve his power.

However, what about the cancer rumors? It is rumored that Putin may have some kind of cancer, which might imperil his future and add new dynamics to his decision-making. Such a possibility could possibly inspire a measure of reckless disregard for life from Putin and place Russia’s nuclear arsenal in an extremely precarious position.