IRAN: Can We Make Peace with the Mullahs?

IRAN: Can We Make Peace with the Mullahs?

By Peter Huessy, Senior Consulting Analyst, Ravenna Associates and President, GeoStrategic Analysis

On Saturday, 19 September, after months of futile diplomatic efforts to extend the UN ban on Iran’s purchase of advanced weapons, the Trump administration implemented “snap back” sanctions as set forth in the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). That action was taken, said Secretary of State Pompeo, because “The Iranians are largely ignoring the most important components of the [nuclear deal] with respect to nuclear enrichment.”

The sanctions were imposed despite the objections of China, Russia and members of the European Union who stated that the U.S. could not do so because President Trump had withdrawn from the JCPOA. To further complicate the issue, candidate Biden has promised that, if he wins the presidency, he would rejoin the nuclear deal and lift sanctions, diplomatic actions that he reckons will make peace with the mullahs and dissuade them from building nuclear weapons and ICBMs.

Questions now arise. What will Russia, China and the EU do about the new sanctions? Will Iran honor what is left of the JCPOA? Is it possible to make peace with Iran’s anti-Western theocracy in hopes it will moderate its disruptive actions in the Middle East and elsewhere?

For their part, with the UN arms embargo ending, Russia, China and the EU will now be tempted to sell Iran the advanced weapons it needs – including missile and nuclear technology. Should they do so, the US will harshly sanction all their companies that conduct such trade. Sanctions busting will also propel Washington to go after more Iranian banks.

As two analysts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) explain, “at least 14 Iranian banks remain open for business with foreign customers. These banks are Tehran’s financial lifeline.” Continue Mark Dubowitz and Richard Goldberg, “the American Financial Crimes Enforcement Network declared Iran’s entire financial industry a primary jurisdiction for money laundering… If these determinations have any meaning, all Iranian banks need to be banned from global finance” but also allowing Covid-19 related humanitarian assistance through a Swiss financial channel utilizing one bank.

Some in Congress want to do just that. A letter sent to President Trump by Senator Cotton (R-Ark.) and other senators urges the administration to “impose sanctions on the entirety of Iran’s financial sector” that may still be connected to the global banking system known as the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT). “Iran’s desperate economic circumstances provide a critical opportunity for the United States to force the regime to abandon its malign activities and return to the negotiating table on your terms,” the senators wrote.