Now Is Not the Time for Minimal Nuclear Deterrence

Numerous plans put forward by disarmament groups such as the George Washington University National Security Archive, Global Zero, and the Ploughshares Fund proposes that the United States reduce its deployed nuclear forces from 1,350 warheads to fewer than 1,000, potentially down to as low as 200-300. Yet to reach those numbers, the United States would have to unilaterally cut its nuclear forces—since Russia and China have shown no interest in joining any arms control agreement at those levels—which has been a staple of the disarmament community agenda for years.

Unilateral U.S. Nuclear Reductions

However, unilateral U.S. reductions make little sense as Russia already has 2,000 more warheads than the United States—with a hedging capacity to build thousands more. This imbalance is a fact of life despite the 2010 New START Treaty assuming that the United States and Russia would maintain nuclear parity in long-range, strategic deployed weapons.

But disarmament groups have not been deterred by Russia’s superior nuclear numbers. Today, advocates, including some members of Congress, want to reduce the U.S. warhead stockpile below the levels allowed by New START by any means necessary. And to justify unilateral cuts, disarmament groups are pushing for the Biden administration’s Nuclear Posture Review to adopt a new deterrent policy that significantly diminishes the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. security policy.

A new October policy brief by the George Washington University (GWU) National Security Archive has collected all the arguments in favor of such low numbers. In addition, the archive explicitly calls on the United States to jettison sixty years of deterrent strategy and officially adopt a “minimum deterrent” strategy that mirrors the very strategy China had adopted decades ago. A “minimum deterrent” is defined as a very small force, of roughly 200-300 warheads, designed for retaliatory purposes only, and not capable of taking out the other country’s weapons but only burning down its cities.

China’s Nuclear Deterrent Strategy

The irony is that just as the disarmament community in the United States is pushing the administration to adopt a minimum deterrent strategy, China’s deterrent strategy is markedly changing as are the deployments of Chinese nuclear weapons.

As has been detailed by Admiral Charles Richard, commander of United States Strategic Command, the Chinese are building some 350 new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) silos in four new missile fields. The silos are 10 feet in diameter and laid out 2 kilometers apart, easily accommodating the DF-41 giant Chinese missile that can each carry ten nuclear warheads.

Minimum Deterrent

In calling for a “minimum deterrent,” disarmament advocates are asking the United States to adopt what is sometimes referenced as a “city busting” targeting plan—which would be against the laws of war and immoral, as it would result in the killing of hundreds of thousands of people who have no say in whether their country should or should not go to war. 

Moreover, destroying such cities will probably have no impact on the course of any conflict as totalitarian leaders care little about their own people. Instead, they are only concerned with maintaining and expanding their political power through the exercise of military force, which is exactly why U.S. deterrent strategy since the Kennedy administration has sought to hold adversarial military assets at risk rather than enemy cities.