“Missile Gap”? Will the Pentagon’s New Sentinel ICBM Arrive in Time To Stop Russia, China?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

The question of a possible US military ICBM “missile gap” is beginning to re-emerge amid potential delays in the delivery and deployment of the new Sentinel ICBM.

The principle concern on the part of senior Air Force leaders and weapons developers is that the existing 1960s-era Minuteman III may not remain operations for the remainder of the decade, and the new Sentinel ICBM is slated to arrive at the end of the 2020s. The question is clear, what if the Minuteman III can no longer operate and the Sentinel has not yet arrived? The US strategic nuclear deterrence triad would be operating at a very dangerous deficit, a scenario presenting extreme vulnerability for the US Homeland,

The Pentagon plans to acquire as many as 650 Sentinels to operate alongside of and then ultimately replace the Minuteman III. An Essay in Arms Control Today says the Air Force allocated $3.7 billion for R&D for Sentinel and $539 million for procurement. In April, the Defense Department began to solicit proposals for a new reentry vehicle to carry the nuclear warhead for the Sentinel missiles.

Overall, the Sentinel program has been a fast-tracked success story which not only performed well in testing but massively shortened its developmental timeline through the successful use of digital engineering. The arrival time or deployment plan has been from 2028 to 2030, and leaders weapons developers and members of Congress are worried the arrival could slide even more.

Several years ago, Air Force leaders and weapons developers said the Sentinel was “on-track” for delivery and that the Minuteman III continues to function with extensive upgrades. This Air Force thinking, at least as of several years ago, had been that a “gap” in capability is not anticipated.

Has this changed now? Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall did express concern about the Schedule for Sentinel earlier this year and members of Congress are vocalizing very significant concerns about the faltering performance of the Minuteman III.