Pentagon to Ukraine: “Don’t Attack Russian Oil Refineries”

By Peter Huessy, Warrior Nuclear Weapons Analyst

The US leads the world in oil and gas production which enabled Texas alone to provide a lifeline to Europe of natural gas after the Russian invasion of Ukraine destabilized energy markets, in part due to a near ten percent decline in Russian oil and gas production.

The US could export significant gas supplies because the US produces 13 million barrels a day of crude oil, and 17 million barrels a day of crude oil and condensates, the highest ever, a result in large part due to the new technology of fracking.

But despite the benefits of “drill, baby, drill,” the US in 2023 annually produced only 180 million more barrels of oil than the previous 2019 peak, or despite a growth in population of 5% 15 million people, oil supplies were up only 3.6%

Part of the reason why oil prices have shot up by 50% is that since 2021 there have been 200 executive actions taken by the US government to preclude further enhanced coal, oil and gas production, largely as part of a policy of getting to zero net greenhouse gases by 2035. But this was despite the US already cutting back significantly on green-house gas emissions. For example, gas production in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico has surged 345% while methane emissions have been already cut 76%.

The pursuit of lower fossil fuel production in the US makes supporting Ukraine’s war effort more difficult. Since 2021, West Texas US crude oil prices climbed from $60/b to $83/barrel to where they are today. Pump prices also surged to over $3.50 a gallon on average, nearly a 50% increase compared to 2019.

This in turn was a key part of the nearly 20% increase in the cost of living since 2021, which also led to the US Federal Reserve to hike interests rates, to where an average mortgage now requires a 7% loan rate rather than 3%.

Why would the US government not seek to keep oil and gas production high and inflation low, particularly with a national election coming up where inflation and the cost of living are high on the concern of many Americans? With lower energy prices, Americans might be more willing to help Ukraine.