by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Pentagon is moving quickly to send several kinds of upgraded missile defense systems to the Middle East to protect Israel and US forces in the region, a clear sign of growing escalation in the region related to the ongoing Hamas-Israeli war, Hezbollah threats and of course Iran and its proxy forces.
The situation is growing much more dire and serious, according to US Defense Secretary Austin to specifically cited escalating threats from Iran. Therefore, along with a critical move to send a second Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean, the Pentagon is strengthening its missile defense posture in the region by sending Patriot Missile Batteries as well as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense weapons to vital parts of the Middle East.
While the Patriot of the Gulf War era proved capable of knocking out SCUDs, and the weapon has shown capable of destroying multiple kinds of ballistic missiles, today’s Patriot is arguably positioned to counter Iran’s dangerous arsenal of cruise missiles. An interesting analysis on Iran Watch cites what it terms “deployed” and “possibly deployed” cruise missiles of various ranges. The longest range Cruise Missile cited in the analysis is the now-deployed Paveh LACM capable of traveling up to 1,600km, yet Iran Watch also specifies two newer “possibly deployed” cruise missiles with “unkown” ranges called the Meshkat/Soumar (Kh-55) and the Hoveizeh. Parts of Western Iran, given this weapons range, would be capable of targeting Israel, and of course Iranian proxies can likely fire them from much closer ranges as well. This places Israel and US forces at risk in the region to a very high degree, although the kind of guidance and target tracking technologies built into Iran’s cruise missiles may not be fully known.
Modern Patriot Could Stop Iranian Cruise missiles
While dispersed yet long-range precision interceptors could make a large difference when it comes to defending Israel and US allies from Hamas or Iranian rockets, the decision to send the Patriot seems to indicate the Pentagon’s growing confidence in its upgraded performance capabilities. While first emerging more than 30-years ago as a “Scud Killer” during the Persian Gulf War, today’s patriot is almost and entirely different weapon due to advanced fire control, paradigm-changing guidance technology and expansive multi-node, target-tracking networking.
It may not yet be clear which exact variant of the Patriot the Pentagon is sending, although many are likely to be the Patriot Advanced Capability -3, a kinetic energy interceptor engineered to track and destroy incoming enemy ballistic missiles. In recent years, however, the Patriot missile has received a series of paradigm-changing upgrades which now enable the interceptor to track and destroy two maneuvering cruise missiles. This ability is a massive change for the weapon, which was upgraded with software adaptations years ago through an effort called Missile System Enhancement (MSE). While this upgrade improved performance parameters in a substantial way in terms of explosive power, range and guidance .. the largest breakthrough with Patriot was demonstrated as recently as 2020 by Army Futures Command.
Warrior Maven discussed Army Modernization with Army Futures Command Deputy William Nelson
The Army has in recent years integrated a next-generation, Raytheon-built advanced radar called the Lower Tier Air and Missile Defense System (LTAMDS) which introduced an ability to better track and destroy moving cruise missiles and also intercept two cruise missiles with a single system. The speed of detection is entirely different, as is the range and aperture or “field of regard.” Raytheon engineers have explained the system to Warrior, explaining that LTAMDS upgrades fast to refresh its tracking detail by real-time radar updates while a threat is in flight. LTAMDS operates with three 120-degree arrays able to compensate for or cover “blind spots.”
These upgrades, should the most cutting edge variants be sent, likely explain why the Patriot is being sent to the Middle East as it is now precisely engineered to track and destroy weapons such as advanced Iranian cruise missiles. Unlike ballistic missiles which travel along a parabola-like up and down trajectory, cruise missiles are designed to elude radar by flying at lower altitudes parallel to the ground. This makes them much harder to track.
Yet another reason why the most advanced Patriots can better track multiple, high-speed targets is that the missile is now much more fully networked as part of the Army’s now operational Integrated Battle Command System (IBCS). In development for many years, IBCS is a meshed network of interconnected nodes able to share threat tracking among dispersed, otherwise disaggregated systems. With IBCS, which is now multi-domain, joint and fast advancing through ongoing upgrades from its maker Northrop Grumman. Years ago, IBCS integrated a Patriot radar with the Sentinel radar, THAAD and even F-35s as aerial nodes. Now Northrop Grumman is linking “maritime” nodes with air, ground and surface weapons.
Patriot – Example of Army Modernization
In a cutting-edge experiment in 2020, Army Futures Command was able to demonstrate the ability of the Patriot to intercept a maneuvering cruise missile during a “live-fire” exercise at White Sands Missile Range, New Mexico.
This test and the overall maturation of the weapons system aligns closely with the Army’s recently published Air and Missile Defense 2028 Vision document. The service crafted the analysis in large measure to enable weapons like the Patriot to engage and destroy a new generation of threats….such as cruise missiles.
“Numerous countries are developing ground-, sea-, and air-launched land-attack CMs [cruise missiles] using an assortment of unconventional and inexpensive launch platforms. In addition, long-range, low-observable, advanced CMs enable our adversaries to present a complex air and missile defense problem with high-volume, high-precision missiles capable of 360-degree avenues of approach,” the Army Vision document states.
The Army text specifies some of the more challenging specifics associated with newly emerging drone, helicopter, aircraft, and ballistic missile threats. For instance, regarding ballistic missile threats, the Army Vision report explains that advanced weapons are now engineered with “countermeasures, maneuverable re-entry vehicles, multiple independent reentry vehicles, hypersonic/supersonic glide vehicles and electronic attack.”
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization and Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
