There are clear arguments in favor of each strategy, and it's not too early to wonder what the Trump administration might do

By Kris Osborn, President, Warrior

As the Pentagon embarks upon a continued 6th-generation stealth fighter effort, it may seem too preliminary to consider the possibility of the aircraft ultimately being sold to allied nations. While the prospect appears somewhat far off as the F-47 aircraft has several more years of planned development before becoming operational in roughly the 2030 timeframe, the significance of a decision of this kind can’t be underestimated. It  would seem to be a complex question with two clear and well-reasoned arguments, each with a visible, large-scale example. 

The examples are very high profile, and they include both the F-22 and F-35 on either ends of the spectrum. The F-22 is regarded as so unique and superior that the Pentagon decided it would not be available for Foreign Military Sales. There are no foreign customers and there is no export variant, perhaps part of a conservative effort to safeguard its unique, high-performing technologies and attributes. The F-35, however, while also considered unique, has ventured into the opposite direction and arguably become the 5th-generation aircraft for much of the free world.  More than 18-countries are now F-35 partners, and the effort began as a multi-national collaborative venture. 

There are clear arguments in favor of each strategy, and it's not too early to wonder what the Trump administration might do with the promising and fast-emerging Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter. Should it be sold to allies? Kept in the US only? There are of course advantages and liabilities with either path

F-35-Like Multinational Fleet

What is the advantage of having a global fleet of F-35s? Does it offset the possible risks associated with sharing uniquely sensitive technologies with other countries?  There are many key advantages associated with having a global F-35 network, in large measure due to the aircraft’s universal Multifunctional Advanced Data Link (MADL) technology which enables all F-35s to securely and seamlessly share time-critical combat information across a combat formation. This adds a command and control advantage to attacking stealth aircraft as they are positioned to quickly share intelligence and targeting information.  An allied multi-national force of F-35s could “mass” 5th-generation air-attack power across a large theater formation and put otherwise impossible pressure on an enemy force. 

Hundreds of F-35s could essentially form a “5th-generation” wall establishing air superiority across vast areas of great relevance. In keeping with Sun Tzu’s famous “mass matters” quote, it makes sense that an ability to deploy a vast, dispersed yet heavily networked large force of F-35 could offer an unparalleled advantage. Therefore, should NGAD be engineered with similar secure, high-speed networking technology, and there certainly makes sense that it will be, then certainly a large, multi-national force of 6th-generation stealth aircraft could offer similar air-combat advantages. 

Yet another advantage associated with 6th-gen multinational sales would be the simple reality of cost reduction; larger production buys lower cost and can streamline manufacturing. There is also a key logistics and supply element to this, as member nations with the same aircraft are positioned to cooperate and collaborate easily regarding maintenance, spare parts and repairs. A multinational force enables a common “logistics chain” which can sustain operations more seamlessly across vast distances.  

F-22 Argument

Then,  there is the equally compelling argument suggesting that any effort to share or export some of the most advanced technology the world has ever seen, presents measurable security risks. Even though allies receive “export” variants of the F-35 and other advanced US platforms, sharing them even to a limited degree increases the possibility that sensitive technologies could be stolen or disrupted. Should advanced engineering and manufacturing expertise be exported as well, then carefully protected methods of technological integration could become compromised as well. This very well could have been the case with the F-22, as it operates with a speed and thrust-to-weight ratio equal to or greater than any aircraft in the world. Finally, there is always a “skeptics” argument, meaning today’s allies could one day become adversaries, given the many twists and turns associated with geopolitical history and the uncertainty of the future.

 Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University