What if The U.S. Built 700 F-22s

By Kris Osborn, Warrior

Years ago there was a decided and passionate push to “re-start” the F-22 production line, an effort which was ultimately abandoned due to what was cited as cost concerns.  The interest in restarting was generated by the recognition that the program was simply cut way too early and way too short. The US Air Force operates 185 F-22s, a number which is merely a fraction of what was originally planned. The end of the Cold War seems to have generated a fair amount of short-term thinking, as it resulted in the collapse of a number of extremely critical and promising platforms such as the B-2 bomber, F-22 and SeaWolf submarine. The B-2 fleet size was decreased to merely 20 airframes, and of course F-22 production was cancelled after only a small portion of the anticipated fleet was built. The US Navy SeaWolf was entirely abandoned after three boats. 

Wrong F-22 Decision

In more recent years, many Pentagon weapons developers and defense experts have come to lament these prior decisions, wondering if those responsible for such determinations lived with both concern and regret. Clearly the Cold War had ended and Russia was much less of a threat, yet the threat equation at that time is a mere snapshot in time, a brief window when the US did not appear to have a great-power threat. However, any student of history or geopolitical expert could easily have embraced a much more accurate, longer-term worldview based on trends and future predictions. 

The F-22 circumstance inevitably introduces the key question as to what the U.S. military, or perhaps even the world, might look like now if the Pentagon had stayed with the original plan to acquire hundreds of F-22s.  In an era of great power rivalry, one cannot underestimate the importance of purs “mass,” and the ability to deploy a large fleet of F-22s would undoubtedly change the global balance of power. Consider, for example, the pace at which China is adding J-20s to its fleet of 5th-generation aircraft. What if the U.S. Air Force operated 700 or more F-22s? That is something the PLA AF would not be able to match for years. In any large-scale confrontation, an ability to “widen” an attack envelope, particularly with modern networking, would enable the larger Air Force to potentially out-flank or “encircle” an enemy force. 

F-22 Superiority

F-22 specs state the Raptor can hit Mach 2.25, a speed placing the aircraft in a very small, elite group of high-speed fighters to include the US F-15 Eagle, F-14 Tomcat and several Russian aircraft such as the Su-27, Su-35, MiG-31 and MiG-25. Both the MiG-31 and MIG-25 are listed at being capable of hitting speeds of Mach 2.83, however they are not stealthy and potentially less agile. It is easier to generate thrust without having to incorporate stealth properties, and the Russian MiGs are heavier planes likely to be much less agile than an F-22. Apart from speed, arguably the largest F-22 advantage may pertain to its amazing thrust to weight ratio, meaning its speed, propulsion and engine “thrust” is extremely high and effective due to the F-22s lighter weight. Simply put, this means the F-22 Raptor operates with unparalleled aerial maneuverability and dog-fighting capability, making it perhaps alone in the world as an air-to-air combat platform. 

Unlike the F-35 which has now reached 19-countries, the F-22 has gone nowhere.  Were the F-22 made available for foreign sales, would the program have had a vastly different outcome? The answer is likely yes, as allied participation in the F-22 program would undoubtedly have massively expanded production of the aircraft and likely inspired the US itself to build higher numbers of the Raptor.  It would likely have had an experience similar to the F-35, meaning it could spread like wildfire across the free world once pilots and allied militaries experienced the aircraft.  The other aspect to “scaling” production is that it massively lowers costs, so it may have enabled US and allied customers to order larger numbers of the aircraft through “lot” or “block” buys. 

Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.