Will an F-35-Armed Saudi Arabia Change Middle East Balance of Power?

By Kris Osborn, Warrior

The potential sale of the F-35 to Saudi Arabia raises some significant and extremely pressing geopolitical sensitivities as it would enable the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to potentially match Israel’s 5th-Generation F-35i Adir. Broadly speaking the sensitivities and regular animosity between Israel and its surrounding muslim neighbors has been well established for many years, so some might be inclined to think an F-35-armed Saudi Arabia could increase tensions and potentially disrupt the balance of power in the region. 

Israeli Air Superiority

At the moment, Israel operates with complete air superiority throughout the Middle East, in large measure because it is the only country with 5th-generation stealth air attack capability. Israel opposes the sale of the F-35 to Saudi Arabia, yet there are several additional variables to this equation which might ensure Israel retains air superiority, even in the event of F-35s going to the Saudi military. 

One clear factor is that the Israeli Defense Forces have specifically engineered their F-35i Adir fleet with indigenously developed technologies, perhaps in large measure to counter known threats in the region. The Adir variant is especially configured with threat-specific technologies, and while details are not available, it would not be surprising if the IDF F-35i Adir were engineered with special EW capabilities developed to counter known enemy drones and weapons threats in the region.  The Saudis will be getting an “export variant” of the F-35 so it is conceivable that Israel’s Adir could be superior in performance, sensing range and EW capacity such that Israel can sustain its air superiority in the region.

F-35i EW

A tailored EW system might make sense for Israel, given the nature of the threats it might be likely to face. For example, many of Israel’s regional threats, such as Iran or militant groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, would, of course, not present an air threat to Israel in terms of aircraft. Therefore, the IDF F-35i Adir could be engineered to counter specific RF frequencies, signals, air defenses and drone weapons known to be used by Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah. For instance, there are now drone defense weapons which are able to intercept and discern the RF protocol of an enemy drone and disrupt its flight path or even take it over completely. Therefore it would not be surprising if this kind of technology were built into the Adir. Secondly, the Adir might be specially configured to “jam” or disable certain Russian built air defenses such as S-300s or S-400s. 

The other element of this may simply relate to sensing and computing; specifically, will a future Saudi F-35 be engineered with the same sensing and targeting technology with respect to range, image fidelity and targeting precision? If so, then indeed a Saudi F-35 could “balance” the air power equation in a way that has not been possible for many years now 

F-47 to Israel 

There is yet another possible way to address the unfolding geopolitical dispute, and that would simply be to sell the emerging 6th-gen F-47 to Israel to ensure the IDF is guaranteed continued air superiority in the region. 

kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel.