Turkey's F-35 ban, stemming from Russian S-400s, may be reversed. New Trump-Erdogan ties could see Ankara rejoin the fighter jet program.
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
There could be a world in which a country operates the F-35 and Russian-built S-400s simultaneously, given that President Trump is reported to have a cooperative relationship with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan.
In 2020, Turkey was “kicked-out” of the F-35 program due to its decision to acquire Russian-made S-400 air defense systems. The ongoing war in Ukraine and Western concerns about the Russian threat likely informed the previous administration’s decision to remove Turkey from the program. However, the possibility is now being revisited in the Trump administration, and a report from Defense Security Asia says Turkey appears willing to “neutralize” its Russian-made S-400s.
"The United States is in ongoing discussions with Türkiye regarding their desire to rejoin the F-35 program and their possession of the Russian-made S-400 air defense system," U.S. Ambassador Tom Barrack said in a post on X, as cited in Reuters.
US-Turkish Cooperation
Barrack said U.S. law will not permit Turkey to operate or possess the S-400 system if it wants to return to the F-35 programme, Reuters stated, adding that new options might be possible now due to the cooperative relationship between the two Presidents.
There are many variables impacting this equation to be sure, as it seems an F-35-armed Turkey presents both possible advantages and risks or liabilities as well. An allied F-35 presence in Turkey introduces clear geographical advantages, as it places potential adversaries in the Middle East at risk of a 5th-generation air assault from the North. Israel has F-35s, but Turkish F-35s could potentially hold Iran or ISIS at risk without needing to involve Israel. This presents the West with additional strategic and tactical options when it comes to projecting 5th-generation air power throughout the Middle East.
F-35-Armed NATO
An F-35-armed Turkey could strengthen the US and allied posture and presence in the Middle East, something of great significance in a potential conflict with Iran. Turkey shares a border with Iran and would be positioned to potentially launch F-35s from close to its border to enable maximum dwell time and mission scope. There is also the advantage of multi-national F-35 networking, given that F-35s from all member countries operate with a secure, common datalink called Multi-functional Advanced DataLink. This enables real time intelligence information sharing across multi-national formations and could prove critical in the event of a coordinated allied operation.
Turkey’s presence along the Black Sea is also of great significance as it could provide a Southern angle of attack against Russia should there be a need for a large-scale NATO 5th-generation strike. Turkey-based F-35s could also hold Russian warships at risk in the Black Sea as well, should there be a need for a NATO operation against Russia. In this capacity, Turkish F-35s could operate as a deterrent against any possible offensive Russian military action in the Black Sea or into Ukraine. Turkish F-35s would have an ability to operate in airspace over Ukraine, as Ukraine is roughly 600-miles from the Turkish coast.
Risk of Turkish F-35s
The risks of an F-35-armed Turkey are also considerable as well, given the prospect of Turkish-Russian collaboration. Acquiring S-400s from Russia indicates a measure of technological cooperation in the realm of weaponry, something which presents risks for the West. How can the Pentagon be assured that Turkey will not share information about F-35 systems, capabilities and technologies with Russia? Even if the Turkish President reassures the West that he will not allow that, there is still the question as to whether the Pentagon should take the risk. Although Turkey would get an “export” version of the F-35, the platform will contain computing, stealth coating materials, engine technologies and avionics likely to be of great interest to the Russians.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.