Despite massive strikes, Iran's IRGC retains a potent, hidden missile and drone arsenal, leveraging underground cities and decoy launchers to evade detection and maintain offensive power.
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
Iranian missile attacks may have dropped by as much as 90 percent since the opening days of Epic Fury, yet there is a lingering and likely somewhat troubling question regarding what kind of remaining arsenal the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps has. The IRGC is still launching attacks, and many of their ballistic missiles operate with precision guidance technologies such as inertial navigation systems or GPS. Despite the more than 13,000 bombing sorties over Iran and the devastation unleashed by Epic Fury upon Iran’s missile stockpile, the IRGC does seem to remain capable of offensive missile attacks.
There are several key factors to consider here, one of which may simply be Iran’s potential strategy; Iran is known to have massive underground missile cities where it stores small boats, drones and missiles, and it is likely difficult for attacking U.S. and Israeli commanders to “know” exactly where all of them are. Iran is known to have spent decades building up its missile arsenal in anticipation of this kind of war scenario. How much does Iran have left? Is the IRGC deliberately holding back to ensure it retains offensive attack capability for weeks or months into the future in the event of protracted conflict? This strategy, if true, may yield some short term benefits, yet Operation Epic Fury has targeted Iran’s production capacity and destroyed missile and drone manufacturing locations. Iran’s ability to maintain its arsenal over time would seem to very much be in question, given the destruction caused by Epic Fury.
Iran Still Has Missiles
At the moment, however, multiple news reports are citing a U.S. intelligence community assessment which found that Iran does, indeed, still maintain a sizable weapons arsenal. A report in the New York Times cites U.S. intelligence findings that Iran’s use of “decoy” launchers makes it difficult for U.S. commanders to know how many they have left. There are other reports claiming that the Iranians are having success rebuilding launchers and “reconstituting” underground storage areas by digging them out of the rubble after airstrikes.
Escape U.S. Targeting
The difficulty Iran will likely have, however, will be related to any effort to sustain this over the long term, due to the targeting, ISR and sensor-to-shooter times the U.S. military is capable of achieving. For instance, U.S. command and control connecting aerial drones with fixed wing attack planes and ground-based command sensors has created a circumstance wherein targets can be hit within minutes or even seconds of being “seen” by drones, sensors or aircraft. There is very little latency, and the often described “sensor” to “shooter” connection is increasingly networked and fortified by AI-enabled computing. Therefore, launchers do not have much time to shoot, because once they emerge, they are quickly seen and destroyed by U.S. airpower. If Iran’s ability to build missiles is crippled or destroyed, then they will inevitably hit a “wall” at some point and lose the ability to launch attacks.
New Iranian Weapons
Yet another concern pertains to the question of range. During his address to the nation, President
Trump said there were long-range Iranian missile capabilities which were previously unknown. He went on to say they had been destroyed by U.S. airpower, yet it does make sense in light of open source analysis of Iran’s missile arsenal. An interesting assessment in an essay called “Iran Watch” from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, referred to a new, long-range variant of the Iranian missile called the Khorramshahr capable of reaching 3,000km. This range can naturally place parts of Europe at risk, and this missile variant may be the reason why Iran was able to fire a missile as far as Diego Garcia.
Iran destroyed
Despite the continued Iranian weapons threat, it can’t be ignored that the Iranian threat has been “massively” destroyed, lessened, set-back, crippled and no longer in position to support attacks on Israel or arm its proxies. The war is accomplishing this, as Iran’s Navy is destroyed, its Air Force neutralized and its ground troops, combat vehicles and missile arsenal has been nearly eliminated. However, it is not clear just how many missiles the Iranians may have left, and the hardline elements of the IRGC may still operate large numbers of buried, hidden missiles, small boats and drones. It seems the U.S. cannot be fully assured it has removed Iran’s capability to attack until or unless there is new leadership, or troops on the ground find, locate and neutralize any possible remaining Iranian underground weapons.
There seems to be little doubt regarding what might be considered the most useful “metric” through which to measure success, as Iran’s ability to launch attacks in the region and control proxy terrorist groups has been “massively degraded.” Iran no longer has a Navy or Air Force, and unknown amounts of stockpiled weapons, missiles and drones have been targeted and destroyed from the air.
Destroyed Weapons Production
Perhaps of greatest significance, Iran’s manufacturing and weapons production capacity has been targeted and destroyed to a large extent as well. This is quite significant in terms of a potential long-term threat, because even if Iran retains some underground missile stockpiles, its inability to build more leaves them with a “finite” or at least “challenged” supply in coming years. Rebuilding missile production capacity will take years, so Iran’s ability to launch attacks in the region has been reduced to both lower amounts and a shorter service life.
Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effi Dafrin stated that 70-percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, and that 100 weapons production sites have been hit and disabled as well. Dafrin added that this will “disrupt Iran’s ability to re-arm in the future.” The IDF added that 500 Iranian Command and Control targets were hit as well.
There have been fewer details and damage assessments announced by the Pentagon, apart from general comments stating Iran’s capacity to attack has been massively reduced or “decimated.” The official assessment thus far from the Pentagon, is that Iran’s ability to launch drone and missile attacks is “functionally destroyed,” and that 66-percent of Iran’s production facilities for drones and missiles have been destroyed.
"Iran's ability to build and stockpile ballistic missiles and long-range drones has also been set back by years compared to where it was six months ago before Operation Epic Fury," White House spokesperson Karoline Leavit told reporters April 8.
Remaining Iranian Drones & Missiles
At the same time, U.S. officials cited in news reports say Iran does still operate a threatening arsenal. Multiple news reports including NBC News, Reuters, New York Times and others are quoting U.S. intelligence community sources stating that roughly 50-percent of Iran’s missile capacity has been destroyed. One report from Reuters breaks it into thirds, citing U.S. intelligence sources, stating that one-third has been destroyed and another third is “buried” beneath rubble. Should these assessments be accurate, it would seem that Iran does still retain a dangerous drone and missile arsenal despite suffering thousands of U.S. air attacks in Epic Fury.
The largest question mark perhaps pertains to the prospect of a long-term threat, meaning will IRGC hardliners retain control of Iran and pursue the same regime ambitions which have remained in place for years, goals which for decades have included “death to America” and the complete destruction of Israel. Will the “intent” of the Iranian leadership evolve or change as a result of Epic Fury? Or will antagonistic approaches only grow stronger and more emboldened following the U.S. and Israeli attacks. It seems unlikely that the new Iranian leaders will experience a policy or attitude “shift” or change in “sensibility” toward Israel and the West. This reality suggests that Iran may return as an equal or greater threat in the future five to ten years from now.
What about the Opposition
An equally pressing question pertains to the fate of the Iranian protestors who sought regime change and envisioned a different future for their country. Will they continue to be targeted and killed? President Trump and other senior U.S. officials say the Iranian regime murdered as many as 45,000 Iranians during its crackdown on protestors. Following the massacre, the unarmed protestors quietly disappeared, yet most assessments indicate that a “majority” of the country wants regime change in Iran. Has the Iranian regime been weakened to the point that it is vulnerable to being overthrown or overrun by Iranian protestors? As of now, the Iranian opposition does not appear armed, so there may be little ability for large numbers of pro-regime to mobilize and take action – unless they were armed and supported somehow on the ground.
These questions pertain to the intended goal or “end-state” of the U.S. war in Iran. Should a repressive, terrorist regime remain in place and continue to kill and suppress its own citizens seeking a better government, then the military effort may succeed in setting back Iran's nuclear ambitions or ability to launch attacks in the region for an unknown period of time. This is not an irrelevant or useless accomplishment, as it does make the U.S. and its allies safer in coming years, yet a very serious long-term threat is likely to remain.
The question of victory in Iran needs to be viewed in terms of both a short and long-term context; the immediate impact of destroying the Iranian military may yield great benefits for the U.S. war effort, yet without regime change a more dangerous Iran could emerge over the long term.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University