Do Emerging Chinese Hypersonic Weapons Make Carriers Obsolete?

By Kris Osborn, Warrior

The U.S. Navy is very clear that it “needs” the Trump-class battleships and that, at the same time, WWII-era battleships are obsolete. These two sensibilities are entirely aligned because, while the Trump-class is being called a “battleship,” it will be an entirely different platform than historic big-gunned battleships as it will have long-range sensors, multi-domain networking and an entire new generation of weapons to include railguns, lasers and hypersonic missiles. While it will bring firepower in a manner somewhat analogous to historic battleships, it will operate with vastly different ranges, technologies and Concepts of Operation. 

Classic WWII battleships, which did not have layered defenses, multi-domain threat sensing technology and long-range precision-weapons, have become obsolete for many reasons. Large platforms without sufficient protection in the form of multi-domain networking, threat identification, layered defenses and an integrated suite of countermeasures, are far too vulnerable to survive a modern threat environment. Large, slow-moving warships without advanced protection simply make easy targets for adversaries who now operate long range precision fires and new methods of attack. 

Given this, many continue to raise the question as to whether large aircraft carriers are obsolete as well, given the growing mass of long-range precision anti-ship missiles able to track and destroy them from several thousand miles off shore. Are U.S. Navy carriers too slow, too large, insufficiently defended and simply too vulnerable to exist? This is indeed a valid question to ask, given that Chinese “carrier killer” missiles such as the DF-26 have shown to be able to destroy carrier-like targets at ranges out to 2,000 miles. 

Can Carriers Survive

There are several lesser or underrecognized elements of aircraft carrier survivability which have been evolving quickly with US Navy weapons developers, scientists and innovators, such as new “layered” carrier defenses and the emergence of the unmanned MQ-25 Stingray carrier-launched refueler drone. The carrier-launched Stingray drone can enable deck-launched aircraft to essentially double their combat radius and be refueled in flight to extend air attack ranges.

Without having to risk a large, non-stealthy manned tanker aircraft, jets can be refueled in flight such that they can have much longer dwell time over targets or are simply able to reach targets from much greater distances. In a tactical sense, what this means is carriers can operate and still project power from safer standoff ranges beyond where Chinese and Iranian missiles can reach. The existence of the MQ-25 Stingray offers a way the US Navy can respond to and potentially overcome China or Iran’s often discussed anti-access/area-denial strategy.

Advanced Carrier Defenses 

The other reason for continued carrier relevance relates to the fact that, beneath the clamor of discussion about China’s anti-ship “carrier killer” missiles, the US Navy has … if somewhat quietly … been breaking through with advanced carrier and ship defenses. Much of the details of this is likely not available for security reasons, yet senior service leaders regularly talk about the fast-growing advantages of ship-integrated EW, laser weapons and enhanced radar detection systems. Ships in a Carrier Strike Group, such as destroyers and cruisers, now offer new dimensions of protection to carriers through technologies such as the Aegis 10 Combat System which combines ballistic and cruise missile radar into a single system able to cue fire control and launch defensive interceptors. 

An SM-6, for example, can now due to software upgrades track and destroy moving targets by adjusting course in flight. US Navy destroyers are increasingly being armed with scalable lasers able to operate as both optical sensors and weapons to incinerate or simply disable an enemy aircraft, drone or incoming missile. There have also been breakthroughs with electronic warfare weapons able to find and “jam” or disable enemy communications or weapons guidance systems. EW technologies are increasingly capable of deconflicting a cluttered spectrum to “frequency hop” to counter enemy “jamming,” identify hostile versus friendly electronic signals or launch a series of difficult to detect narrow “pencil beam” kinds of electronic beams to disable or jam an enemy system. There are also upgraded close-in ship defenses increasingly able to track and intercept threats much more quickly, often using AI-enabled advanced algorithms to identify and destroy threats at exponentially greater speeds.

Carriers “Sense” Threats

All of this is made possible by breakthrough levels of multi-domain networking wherein surface ships connect with aircraft, drones, satellites and aerial gateway platforms to identify and relay threat information from unprecedented distances beyond the horizon.

Given all this, the Pentagon, and certainly the US Navy, have for years now been exploring a range of ways to stop, destroy or disable these carrier-threatening weapons. Chinese anti-ship missile threat, despite the fact that much is likely still unknown when it comes to the reach, guidance technology and accuracy of these “Carrier Killer” missiles and their ability to hit moving targets. In response to this transparent Chinese A2/AD strategy, the US Navy has been clear for several years now that it can and will operate anywhere it needs to when conducting comb at operations and projecting maritime power.

There are likely some interesting and important reasons why Navy leaders make these comments, recognizing that of course many elements of ship-defense technology are not available for security reasons. For instance, in recent years, the Navy has been making rapid, breakthrough progress in the realm of layered ship defenses, meaning ships can increasingly see and “destroy'' potentially catastrophic threats from beyond the horizon. Carrier Strike Groups, for instance, now operate with new generations of long-range sensors and “aerial gateways” able to relay threat data from beyond the horizon to ship commanders in position to take defensive action and decide which countermeasure or defensive weapon to use.

Carriers “Intercept” Missiles

A now deployed technology called Naval Integrated Fire Control - Counter Air uses Hawkeye surveillance planes and even F-35s to function as an “aerial” relay node able to detect threats from beyond the radar aperture from where ship radar can detect. NIFCA is an integrated system which uses an airborne gateway as a sensor to send threat data down to the ship while the attacking missile is at much safer ranges. The aerial sensor then cues ship-based fire control to launch an SM-6 interceptor to fly up and intercept or destroy the incoming enemy missile. NIFC-CA was first deployed more than six years ago on US Navy destroyers and has likely been upgraded since then as well. Layered ship defenses are also increasingly engineered with laser weapons and advanced EW able to track and “jam” the electronic guidance systems built into the Chinese carrier-killer missiles.

MQ-25 Stingray

There are also range-enhancements as well, quite possibly developed as a specific counter to China’s missiles and anti-access/area-denial weapons, such as the rapid emergence of the Navy’s MQ-25 Stingray carrier-launched refueler drone. As a first of its kind platform, the sea-launched drone can basically double a fighter jet’s attack reach by virtue of fueling the aircraft hundreds of miles away from the carrier deck. Unlike a large and very vulnerable tanker, the MQ-25 is smaller, sleeker and of course much less risky to sailors by virtue of its being unmanned. In a tactical sense, this means that carriers with the MQ-25 could project power over land from twice the distance offshore, enabling sustained attack reach in an A2/AD environment. The carrier-launched Stingray drone can enable deck-launched aircraft to essentially double their combat radius and be refueled in flight to extend air attack ranges.

Without having to risk a large, non-stealthy manned tanker aircraft, jets can be refueled in flight such that they can have much longer dwell time over targets or are simply able to reach targets from much greater distances. In a tactical sense, what this means is carriers can operate and still project power from safer standoff ranges beyond where Chinese and Iranian missiles can reach. The existence of the MQ-25 Stingray offers a way the US Navy can respond to and potentially overcome China or Iran’s often discussed anti-access/area-denial strategy.

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The HistoryChannel. He also has a Master's Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia