

By Kris Osborn, Warrior
The presence of the USS Ford off the coast of Venezuela sends a compelling message related to the power projection capabilities of the US Navy, a scenario which may lead one to wonder just how exactly a Carrier Air Wing or Carrier Strike Group might be used in a combat or attack scenario. There has been no decision to conduct strikes, the concept of how a strike might develop is entirely speculative.
It would seem extremely unlikely that the US would launch a massive air-campaign with large numbers of 4th and 5th-generation aircraft, as it appears there would be no need for such a large-scale attack. However, precision strikes against military targets, command and control facilities or locations and assets known to be used by drug trafficking groups such as Tren de Aragua.
Venezuelan Air Defenses
Venezuela is not likely armed with a large and formidable arsenal of air defenses sufficient to threaten US carrier-launched jets, yet a public report from Yahoo cites that the country does operate some Russian-built S-300VM systems which can target aircraft just beyond 100miles. However, it is not clear how many there may or how maintained and modernized they may be. It is also unclear if they are networked to one another and exist in impactful numbers. It seems likely that USS Ford-launched F-35Cs would have a measure of success against these systems should they wish to get in place to strike military or drug-trafficking targets in the country. In addition, a recent report in TWZ cites Russian officials claiming in a Russian publication that Russia sent Pantsir-S1 and Buk-M2E air defense systems to Caracas by transport aircraft, so Venezuela may have recently received additional weapons.
Tomahawk strike
However when it comes to the prospect of US Navy firepower being used against Venezuelan targets, it seems far more likely that submarines or a destroyer from a Carrier Strike Group would be more likely to fire Tomahawks at targets on the coast or inland. There are several key reasons for this, the first of which simply being reached. A warship or submarine launched Tomahawk can travel at least 900 miles from the ocean, a range which places all of Venezuela at risk of a precise Tomahawk strike. Therefore, targets could be hit without needing to risk any manned fighter jets operating over hostile territory, despite the fact that Venezuela’s air defenses may be marginal at best.
Precision Attack on Drug Traffickers
Therefore, it seems more likely that fixed wing ISR, drones or even satellites might help identify precision strike points in anticipation of a potential Tomahawk strike. There are additional variables to consider with a Tomahawk strike as well, such as the modern technologies woven into the weapon improves targeting and attack possibilities. Block IV standard Tomahawks operate with an ISR-enabled “loitering” function, meaning they can hover over target areas and use a two-way data link to re-direct as needed should target information change. The US Navy also now operates a Tactical Tomahawk cruise missile, a weapon which can adapt course in flight to adjust to moving targets such as ships at sea, moving vehicles or mobile air defenses. Given these variables, and the range and flight-guidance options available to Tomahawk missiles, virtually all of Venezuela could be held at risk from several hundreds miles off shore, should that be necessary.
Tomahawks are often the first weapons to strike in a conflict given their range and precision; they were conceived during the Cold War to fly parallel to the ground with a cruise-missile trajectory to defeat Soviet air defenses and they are an optimal stand-off range precision-weapon. Historically, they have been used against fixed targets such as bunkers, command and control centers, weapons facilities or troop locations. More recently, they have been developed as tactical, course adjusting weapons capable of tracking and hitting ships at sea.
F-35C Attack?
Therefore, while attack plan contingencies are not likely available for security reasons, and the actual possibility of an attack seems extremely low, the method of attack would likely involve long-range ISR and cruise missiles such as a Tomahawk. Also, any strike on Venezuela would almost certainly be a limited or targeted strike so there would not be a need for a large-scale air campaign.
At the same time stealth aircraft such as an F-35C might be preferred given that drug-trafficker targets may be small and mobile, meaning they would need to be tracked from the air by drones, armed drones or manned stealth aircraft such as an F-35C which could easily launch from the USS Ford.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel.