Iran's small boats and potent missiles threaten global oil flow. What happens if they shut down this vital waterway?
By Kris Osborn, Warrior
Iran’s small boat threat in the Strait of Hormuz has been a security threat to the West for many years, as it is a narrow choke point of ocean within range of Iranian missiles where mines and attack watercraft can hold military and commercial ships at risk. As the U.S. Navy’s USS Abraham Lincoln and its Carrier Strike Group arrive in the Middle East, numerous public reports cite Iranian officials claiming to have “control” over the Strait of Hormuz or simply “close” the choke point.
Indeed Iran has a long and documented history of using swarming small boats to intimidate or harass international commercial vessels as well as U.S. Navy platforms, one reason why the U.S. Navy has in recent years massively upgraded its close-in ship defenses such as deck-mounted guns and interceptor weapons such as SeaRAM and Close-in-Weapons-System.
21 Mile Strait of Hormuz
Certainly Iran has sought to maximize whatever leverage it may perceive it has to exert pressure upon those needing safe passage through the Strait, as there is a long documented history of small boat attacks. Also of great relevance, a huge percentage of the world’s oil, to include some U.S. oil, must pass through the Strait of Hormuz. It is quite a narrow passageway, spanning only 21 miles at its narrowest point. Overall the strait itself is about 35-to-60 miles wide and connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. In order to facilitate safe and efficient passage, the Strait operates specific shipping lanes about two miles wide separated by a buffer. Roughly 20-percent of the world’s oil, approximately 21 million barrels a day, pass through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian Missile Threat
A significant research paper from Iran Watch shows that indeed Iran does possess a massive arsenal of ballistic missiles, at least five of which can reportedly travel distances of 1,300km or more. The famous Shahab-3, for instance, is listed by Iran Watch as capable of traveling 1,300km with a 1,000kg warhead. The liquid fuel, single stage Shahab-3 rocket is now deployed and exists in large numbers. The longest range ballistic missile listed by Iran Watch is the Khorramshahr 1,2, and 4 .. weapons cited as able to travel as far as 2,000 to 3,000km. This means the missile could hit anywhere in Israel from Tehran or most places throughout Central and Western Iran. Other Iranian Medium Range Ballistic Missiles capable of traveling 1,600km or more are the now-deployed Ghadr, Emad and Paveh missiles, according to Iran Watch. The Iranian Sejjil MRBM can travel 2,000km.
Should Iran close the Strait as part of a hostile or military move, there would not only be concerning security implications but the world’s economy would be severely impacted. The actual task of closing the Straight might not be too difficult given that its passageways are only 2 miles wide. Iranian boats would merely need to occupy or “blanket” with boats, barriers or mines to close shipping lanes. A move to close the Strait could be a way Iran might seek to exert leverage, yet fall short of launching actual attacks or a direct act of war. It could almost be seen as a kind of “gray zone” maneuver to generate an impact without firing weapons.
What if Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz”
Any Iranian move to shut the Strait of Hormuz could also be designed to block or stop the USS Abraham Lincoln and its Carrier Strike Group from entering the Persian Gulf in the event that President Trump decides to strike Iran. Such an Iranian initiative, however, would likely remain short-lived and easily countered by U.S. Navy forces in the region. Iran might be able to quickly close the Strait, but it would not be able to “keep it closed” for long, given the many U.S. surface, undersea and air attack capabilities in the region with the USS Abraham Lincoln.
U.S. Navy Attack
U.S. Navy warships, aircraft and even submarines and countermine vessels could simply “engage” the area to ensure it remains open. Perhaps of even greater significance, the U.S. Navy’s Carrier Strike Group is capable of striking Iran and conducting air operations over Iran without needing to transit through the Strait. Therefore, any pre-emptive Iranian move to attempt to close it is not likely to make strategic or tactical sense, and it certainly makes no political sense given the number of countries around the world which depend upon oil passing through the area.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven– Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The HistoryChannel. He also has a Master's Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia