Strait of Hormuz Open: What has Epic Fury Accomplished?

By Kris Osborn, Warrior

Iran’s remaining arsenal, gas prices, Strait of Hormuz passage and terrorism threats are all emphasized focal points for assessments of Epic Fury, a combat operation against Iran which may … or may not .. be ending. 

The current ceasefire offers a window through which many are likely to “assess” the relative effectiveness or success of Operation Epic Fury, and there seems to be both a measure of ambiguity and loud voices of all sides of the analysis.  There seems to be little doubt regarding what might be considered the most useful “metric” through which to measure success, as Iran’s ability to launch attacks in the region and control proxy terrorist groups has been “massively degraded.” Iran no longer has a Navy or Air Force, and unknown amounts of stockpiled weapons, missiles and drones have been targeted and destroyed from the air. 

Destroyed Weapons Production 

Perhaps of greatest significance, Iran’s manufacturing and weapons production capacity has been targeted and destroyed to a large extent as well. This is quite significant in terms of a potential long-term threat, because even if Iran retains some underground missile stockpiles, its inability to build more leaves them with a “finite” or at least “challenged” supply in coming years. Rebuilding missile production capacity will take years, so Iran’s ability to launch attacks in the region has been reduced to both lower amounts and a shorter service life. 

Israeli Defense Forces spokesman Brig. Gen. Effi Dafrin stated that 70-percent of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed, and that 100 weapons production sites have been hit and disabled as well.  Dafrin added that this will “disrupt Iran’s ability to re-arm in the future.”  The IDF added that 500 Iranian Command and Control targets were hit as well.  

There have been fewer details and damage assessments announced by the Pentagon, apart from general comments stating Iran’s capacity to attack has been massively reduced or “decimated.”  The official assessment thus far from the Pentagon, is that Iran’s ability to launch drone and missile attacks is “functionally destroyed,” and that 66-percent of Iran’s production facilities for drones and missiles have been destroyed. 

"Iran's ability to build and stockpile ballistic missiles and long-range drones has also been set back by years compared to where it was six months ago before Operation Epic Fury," White House spokesperson Karoline Leavit told reporters April 8. 

Remaining Iranian Drones & Missiles

At the same time, U.S. officials cited in news reports say Iran does still operate a threatening arsenal. Multiple news reports including NBC News, Reuters, New York Times and others are quoting U.S. intelligence community sources stating that roughly 50-percent of Iran’s missile capacity has been destroyed. One report from Reuters breaks it into thirds, citing U.S. intelligence sources, stating that one-third has been destroyed and another third is “buried” beneath rubble. Should these assessments be accurate, it would seem that Iran does still retain a dangerous drone and missile arsenal despite suffering thousands of U.S. air attacks in Epic Fury.  

The largest question mark perhaps pertains to the prospect of a long-term threat, meaning will IRGC hardliners retain control of Iran and pursue the same regime ambitions which have remained in place for years, goals which for decades have included “death to America” and the complete destruction of Israel. Will the “intent” of the Iranian leadership evolve or change as a result of Epic Fury? Or will antagonistic approaches only grow stronger and more emboldened following the U.S. and Israeli attacks. It seems unlikely that the new Iranian leaders will experience a policy or attitude “shift” or change in “sensibility” toward Israel and the West. This reality suggests that Iran may return as an equal or greater threat in the  future five to ten years from now. 

What about the Opposition

An equally pressing question pertains to the fate of the Iranian protestors who sought regime change and envisioned a different future for their country. Will they continue to be targeted and killed? President Trump and other senior U.S. officials say the Iranian regime murdered as many as 45,000 Iranians during its crackdown on protestors. Following the massacre, the unarmed protestors quietly disappeared, yet most assessments indicate that a “majority” of the country wants regime change in Iran. Has the Iranian regime been weakened to the point that it is vulnerable to being overthrown or overrun by Iranian protestors?  As of now, the Iranian opposition does not appear armed, so there may be little ability for large numbers of pro-regime to mobilize and take action – unless they were armed and supported somehow on the ground. 

Strait of Hormuz - Totally Open

The largest ambiguity or disconnect has related to the Strait of Hormuz, given that Iranian and U.S. positions had been very far apart to a clear degree. President Trump's demand or a complete, immediate “opening” of the Strait may have come to fruition, yet the level of Iranian control seems unclear.  It seems very unlikely that the Iranian regime and its military will essentially retain access and passage control over the Strait of Hormuz.  Surely the U.S. cannot let the Iranian military retain control of and profit from the Strait, yet that seems like an actual “real” possibility at this point. Even if the Iranian regime does not exercise its control over the Strait in a way that is hostile to the U.S., the mere possibility that they may "monitor” and control access and transit would seem highly problematic for the U.S. Would this kind of a status quo leave Iran in a better position than it was previously regarding the Strait? +

Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.