by Kris Osborn, Warrior

The question of whether new long-range precision weapons have made aircraft carriers obsolete has become so widely discussed that it almost seems cliche, yet the tactical, technological and conceptual variables informing the overall equation are evolving quickly … something which of course generates a need for ongoing deliberation. 

The fundamental premise has been clear for years, as it simply pertains to whether long-range Chinese “carrier-killer” anti-ship missiles such as the DF-26 and DF-2`D prevent carriers from operating within striking range of the weapons.  This question introduces a clear and highly relevant tactical reality, given that the DF-26 is cited as being able to reach ranges out to 2,000 miles. This means carriers would have to operate several thousand miles off the coast of mainland China to be safely beyond the range of carrier-killer missiles. 

Back Carriers Out of Range

Specifically, it seems this range would place US Navy Carrier-Strike Groups in a particularly concerning tactical predicament, as they would have to operate well beyond the 1,000-to-1,300 mile range of an F-35B or F-35C. Therefore, would US Navy carriers now be at a complete loss to project power near or above the coast of China?  Does this mean the South China Sea area or waters off of Taiwan are essentially fully “off-limits” to carriers?  The addition of external fuel tanks can compromise stealth and increase a jet's radar cross section, and most fixed-wing “tanker” aerial refuelers are large and non-stealthy as well. This is a key reason why the Navy has for years been seeking to fast-track a first of its kind carrier-launched drone refueler known as the MQ-25 Stingray. 

Ship Defenses

For years now, the US Navy has maintained confidence that its carriers can operate wherever necessary to project power and operate successful air-campaign attacks. While Navy weapons developers are often understandably reluctant to discuss specific ranges and capabilities related to its ship defense systems, senior service leaders do emphasize that “layered” ship defense technologies continue to achieve paradigm-changing breakthroughs. The existing interceptor missiles arming Carrier Strike Groups, such as the SM-6, SM-2, ESSM Block II and longer-range SM-3 have been upgraded in recent years with improved seeker technology, longer-range more precise targeting or intercept technology and multi-domain networking. In essence, they have all become much more adept at targeting and intercepting moving threats; the SM-6, in particular, operates with an “active” seeker, meaning it can adapt to moving targets in flight and does not need a ship-based illuminator. Such increased targeting and maneuverability massively improves the probability of a successful intercept. 

Lasers & EW

The largest margin of difference in the realm of ship-defense improvements resides in the arrival and rapid maturation of laser-weapons and  non-kinetic countermeasures such as electronic warfare and various kinds of “jamming” technologies. Should the guidance system of an incoming PLA DF-26 be disabled or jammed, it could not successfully continue on to its target. Navy warships are now armed with Surface Electronic Warfare Improvement Program Block 3, an advanced EW countermeasure able to deconflict the spectrum, distinguish signals and frequencies and effectively “jam” “disable” or “attack” RF guidance systems essential to the effectiveness of Chinese “carrier-killer” missiles.  Northrop is now developing, testing and fast-tracking a SEWIP Block 4 variant as well. 

US Navy destroyers are also now rapidly being armed with laser weapons which are not only “low-cost” and “scalable” but able to incinerate incoming enemy missiles at the speed of light. An advanced precision laser weapon could simply burn a hole through the metal of a Chinese anti-ship missile to drop it into the ocean. 

Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University