By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The emerging, yet mysterious Chinese H-20 stealth bomber is very much on the Pentagon radar, as it is expected to arrive within a few years as a rival to the US B-21 and bring unprecedented ranges and nuclear-capable, high-altitude broadband stealth to the global threat equation.
Very little is known about the H-20, and there have been few publicly available renderings, and while the platform appears quite stealthy to the observer’s eye, top Pentagon weapons experts are concerned about the People’s Liberation Army Air Force production capacity and anticipated fleet size, as it pertains to the H-20. The Pentagon’s annual military report on China has consistently cited an H-20 threat, stating as far back as 2018 that the H-20’s 8,500km range armed with 2,000 km range CJ-20 ALCMs can “expand long-range offensive bomber capability beyond the second island chain,” placing areas such as Guam, Hawaii and the US at risk.
Beyond the mere question of range and global reach, the H-20 could present a very serious “nuclear-mass” threat, according to top Pentagon researchers studying Chinese weapons and production capacity. In little more than a decade, China could potentially deploy a fleet of at least 50 H-20 bombers capable of attacking with hundreds of nuclear warheads.
“The H-20 is supposed to be able to carry 16 weapons. By 2035, there’s no reason why they couldn’t have at least 50 of those because its IOC is supposed to be sometime in the next few years. The U.S. plans on building somewhere around, I think it’s 7-to-15 B-21s a year. We actually built approximately 25 B-1s a year. So given China’s manufacturing capabilities, I see no reason why they shouldn’t have at least 50 H-20s by 2035 and the associated weapons,” according to James Howe, President of Strategic Concepts and Analysis and former Director, Threats, Technologies and Future Requirements for Boeing Missile Defense Division. Mr. Howe has performed studies for OSD, DTRA, NNSA, DIA/MSIC and USA
SMDC and briefed his research to OSD, ONR, STRATCOM, USSC, NSA, CIA, NIC and DIA . He recently discussed his research with Warrior and the Advanced Nuclear Weapons Alliance Deterrence Center in an interview about his research. Howe explained this during the inaugural episode of Warrior-ANWA’s Future Series NucleCast PODCAST
Howe’s extensive research, which he draws from to brief Senior Pentagon leaders, weapons developers and decision-makers, is called “China/Russia Strategic/Theater Nuclear Weapons:2044 Forecast and Potential US Responses.”
“China built 20-30 H-6 bombers/year and plans to build 150 C-919 passenger planes/year. With an expected 2025 H-20 first flight there is little reason China could not have 50 or more H-20 bombers by 2035,” Howe added. “The H-20 reportedly has a 10-to-40-ton payload. For comparison purposes, the B-2 reportedly has a 20-ton (40,000 lb.) payload.”
China to Triple Tactical Nuclear Warheads by 2035
The text of Howe’s research projects the latest and most accurate open source estimates of China’s tactical nuclear weapons capabilities moving into future years. One of Howe’s major findings is that, according to open source information, China is likely to “triple” its number of available “Strategic and Theater” nuclear warheads within the next 10-years. DoDs China Military Power Report documents state that the PRC likely has 500-to-600 nuclear warheads as of 2024 and will likely have as many as 1,500 Strategic and Theater warheads by 2035. Howe believes this may be a significant underestimation, as based on numbers of strategic weapons and warhead capacity they could have 2,000-6,000 strategic nuclear warheads and another 1500-2500 theater warheads by 2035.
Howe, who has researched Russian and Chinese nuclear weapons modernization for decades, believes China’s fast-track effort to “scale” its nuclear weapons arsenal should not be underestimated.
A key question related to the H-20, therefore, naturally pertains to the extent to which its computing, sensing, fire control and stealth properties can actually rival the US B-21. There may not be a clear answer, yet a stealthy external configuration does not immediately suggest the platform has comparable advanced computing, sensing, thermal management or weapons integration sufficient to present a credible challenge to the US and be able to defeat US air defenses and a comparable strategic threat as the US B-21. .
Overall, however, very little is known about the specifics of the B-21, naturally for security reasons, yet it is discussed by Pentagon leaders as a platform capable of operating as a “sky” node command and control system able to receive, analyze and transmit time sensitive combat data from the air across domains while controlling drones from the cockpit. Few specifics are available, yet the now airborne B-21 is understood to incorporate paradigm-changing levels of new stealth technology. Therefore, while the H-20 may appear similar to a stealthy B-2 or B-21 in terms of external configuration based on available public images, there does not seem to be a clear answer regarding the full extent of the threat. Nonetheless, as explained by Howe, the PLA AF’’s civil-military fusion is well known for its high-optempo production capacity and an ability to “mass” an air-nuclear attack is something the Pentagon is taking quite seriously.
Nuclear Hypersonics & Dual Use Weapons
Concerns about China’s growing tactical nuclear arsenal are fortified by the unambiguous realization that the PLA’s existing arsenal of ballistic and hypersonic missiles are clearly what Howe referred to as “dual-use” weapons, meaning they could be easily configured to carry either a nuclear or conventional warhead.
This means that China’s often discussed DF-26 carrier-killer missile, reportedly able to travel 2,000 miles off shore, could easily be configured to carry tactical nuclear weapons. While this may seem alarming, it is entirely realistic and well documented by Howe who estimate that most of China’s theater missile arsenal, including hypersonics, are dual use … meaning they could be easily configured to carry Strategic and Theater nuclear weapons.
“At various points in time, virtually all of the Chinese missiles have been characterized by the US Intelligence Community as dual use. China categorically states that they do not have any theater nuclear weapons. Yet they have developed and tested theater nuclear weapons, and conducted field training of swapping warheads in the field, so if they do not have any theater nuclear weapons, why do they have dual use missiles? I believe most of them are dual-use, to include the hypersonic ones,” Howe told Warrior.
The threat further expands when one considers China’s rapidly growing arsenal of hypersonic weapons; the PLA Navy, for instance, is known to be test firing a YJ-21 ship-launched hypersonic anti-ship missile from its warships. Video of a test firing of this weapon from the PLAN’s Type 055 destroyer was cited in 2022 in Naval News. Extending Howe’s thinking, it seems conceivable that this kind of weapons apparatus could also be configured to carry and fire theater tactical nuclear warheads as well. And there are potential hypersonic dual-use threats from the air as well, as the Chinese government-backed Global Times newspaper stated last year that its H-6K bomber was deployed carrying an air-launched variant of the hypersonic weapon also called the YJ-21.
“The H-6K bomber is capable of carrying a wide variety of munitions including the KD-20 land attack missile, the YJ-12 supersonic anti-ship missile and the YJ-21 hypersonic missile,” the Global Times reports.
The YJ-12 is certainly a known weapon as a supersonic cruise missile, as is the KD-20, yet their presence on the H6K may indicate the presence of new kinds of fire-control and weapons guidance technologies intended to improve the strike range and accuracy of the bomber’s stand-off threat to land targets in Taiwan. The most significant part of this June 19, 2023 report in the Global Times, however, is that it claims the H6K is now armed with a YJ-21 “hypersonic missile.” YJ-21 air-launched version hypersonic missile called the KD-21 has a range of 1500 km and can reportedly reach speeds of Mach 6, making it difficult to intercept.
Kris Osborn is the Military Technology Editor of 19FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a highly qualified expert in the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University
