Can the Russia-Ukraine War Be Won Anytime Soon?

by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington D.C.) There is an often-asked question that is as clear as it is difficult to answer: Will the Russia-Ukraine war be won? Anytime soon? How?

What We Know

Following Ukraine’s unexpected and highly successful defense of Kyiv, which stalled, disrupted, or even destroyed attacking Russian armored formations, many were of the view that the conflict would indeed become a protracted war.

In the following months, this does appear to have been the case, as Russia has proven unable to seize and hold large amounts of territory, and Ukrainian forces have had some clear success with various counter-offensives.

The State of Play in Ukraine

Looking at the dynamics on the ground, there are several key indications that the conflict will likely continue for quite some time.

It seems Ukraine will need much larger concentrations of heavy armor in the form of Abrams tanks, Bradleys fighting vehicles, and other armored platforms to succeed in retaking and “holding” territory.

This will be key to ultimately repelling or pushing Russian forces “out” of Ukraine, and it is something still several years away.

The Armor Issue

It is certainly conceivable that more heavy armor may quickly find its way to support Ukraine, however, the planned US delivery of Abrams tanks will take several years to develop fully, and there may not be enough Bradley Fighting Vehicles to “mass” and “advance” armored forces large enough to hold newly captured territory.