First Attacks in Massive Russian Offensive … Go Nowhere

By Kris Osborn President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington D.C.) Initial indications seem to suggest that Russia’s massive and much anticipated large-scale offensive is faltering, experiencing setbacks and failing to achieve any of its immediate objectives.

Russia’s Large-Scale Offensive 

Russia appears to be engaged in massive force consolidation, preparatory rocket attacks in advance of an incursion and a mobilization of mechanized vehicles, however several key war updates indicate that Russia’s initial offensive is stalling, if not failing. In particular, one potentially surprising observation detailed in an interesting brief published by the Institute of War says Russia appears to be lacking functional tanks and armored vehicles.

“The observed absence of several critical tank units suggests that the Russian military continues to struggle to replace equipment, especially tanks, lost during previous failed offensive operations. Russian forces almost certainly still have some reconstituted mechanized units in reserve, but the commitment of these limited reserves to the Luhansk Oblast frontline is unlikely to change the course of the ongoing offensive dramatically,” an ISW Brief from Feb. 19 states.

The ISW brief goes on to observe that Russia is using insufficiently “scaled” infantry and simply lacks the uncommitted reserves to fully “scale” the offensive. 

This is quite significant and, perhaps upon closer examination, not surprising to an extent, given the likely condition of Russia’s aging fleet. Although Russia is listed as operating 12,566 tanks on Global Firepower, there may be questions about how many are now functional, maintained and operational. 

The tenacity of Ukrainian soldiers, coupled with an effective use of ambush-style anti-armor weapons and tactics had a devastating, if even somewhat surprising, impact upon Russia’s initial invasion force. Perhaps this is one key reason why, when faced with a massive new Russian offensive against Ukraine, the Pentagon announced yet another large-scale $450 million infusion of Javelin anti-tank weapons, HIMARs rockets and 155mm artillery, Bradley Fighting Vehicles and tactical trucks, among other things.