NATO Air War Supremacy: The Real Reason Russia Won’t Attack NATO

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

NATO vs. Russia War? The prospect of a massive Russia-NATO war across the European continent has struck fear in the minds of thousands for decades, as it represents what could be thought of as a spirit of the times or “zeitgeist” for decades during the Cold War.

Aggressive Russia-NATO Climate

The fear of a Russia-NATO clash has intensified in recent years both prior to and of course since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The concern has been massive for many years, and as far back as seven years ago in 2016, the Rand Corp. published a concerning study suggesting that, given the size and depth of its ground war arsenal, Russia could quickly overrun the Baltics should it choose to invade. The findings of this study prompted discussion about sending more U.S. forces to Eastern Europe to strengthen a deterrence posture.

Baltic Concern

The widely read and quoted 2016 Rand Corporation study called “Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO’s Eastern Flank, Wargaming the Defense of the Baltics,” raised concern about NATO’s ability to defend Eastern Europe. The published report, emerging from extensive wargaming, made the determination that the Baltic states would be quickly overrun by Russian forces in the event of any invasion. The study recommended that the Pentagon substantially reinforce its combat presence and forward-deployment activities in the region.

However, this study was published in 2016, years before the arrival of sufficient numbers of F-35s across the European Continent. The current concentration of F-35 power in Northern Europe introduces the possibility that the U.S. and its allies could, if necessary, quickly launch a massive 5th-generation air assault into Russian airspace should that instantly become necessary. Not only does Finland itself share a border with Russia, but the Russian coastline and the Baltic states border the Baltic Sea. This places Russia easily within the combat attack radius of F-35s from Poland, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Netherlands, and possibly even the UK.

“Nine nations have F-35s operating from a base on their home soil, 12 services have declared Initial Operational Capability and six services have employed F-35s in combat,” a statement from Lockheed Martin on F-35 activities in 2021 said.

While Russia does have some air power and advanced technology, the largest concern for NATO has been its sizable ground force. Global Firepower’s military rankings states that Russia owns as many as 12,000 tanks and thousands of other armored vehicles.