Polish MiG-29s Headed to Ukraine – Can Ukraine Achieve Air Superiority?

by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington D.C.) More MiG-29 Fighters for Ukraine: How Much Can They Help? More Soviet-era MiG-29 fighter jets are headed from Warsaw, Poland to Ukraine to join the ongoing war for air superiority in the skies above Ukraine. The prospect of Western fighter jets, even Soviet-era fighters from Eastern Europe, has long been on the radar as key to Ukraine’s “wish list.” Not surprising, as the inability of either Russia or Ukraine to achieve air supremacy remains an ongoing mystery of this war.

Supremacy of the Skies

Russia’s inability to achieve air superiority remains perplexing, given that the country is listed on GlobalFirepower as having 773 fighter jets, compared to Ukraine’s 69. There are several key likely variables here, one is simply that Russia’s pilots are extremely risk averse, as was mentioned months ago by the Pentagon. Secondly, air defenses in Ukraine have continued to arrive and proven effective, meaning they may simply be keeping Russian fighters from operating above them. Perhaps the most likely reason was mentioned to me by a former high-level U.S. military official, and that is that Russia lacks the ability to successfully “network” air formations across enemy territory. An inability to distribute and coordinate target information and operate with sufficient command and control is clearly something likely to impede any kind of air attack effectiveness.

So the question then emerges as to whether the arrival of MiG 29s from Poland could actually push the balance in Ukraine’s favor. Perhaps. However, Russia is also known to operate some of the most advanced air defenses in the world and likely has them in large numbers blanketing key areas.

Air Defense

As far as it is known, the Ukrainians do not operate any stealthy aircraft capable of eluding or destroying these defenses. Russian-built S-400 and S-500 air defenses are increasingly networked into linked or “meshed” nodes across wide formations. They reportedly operate with advanced kinds of digital processing technology, greater ranges, and an ability to operate on a greater number of frequencies. Russia’s air defenses are also mobile, so they could travel as part of attacking armored formations to offer a protective air envelope.

The inability of Ukraine to establish air superiority is likely why there was such a pressing need for ground-based rockets such as HIMARS and Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems able to target and destroy Russian missile launchers. If Russian missile launch sites could not be reached from the air, then ground rockets with longer ranges than artillery offered the only way to destroy the launch sites from which Russian rockets were killing families, children, and civilians in residential areas.

Can the MiG-29 Make a Difference?

What will the MiG-29s bring? They could nevertheless still be impactful, however larger numbers of them would likely be needed to exact the desired effect.