by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Russia has attacked Ukraine with a cutting edge air-launched “hypersonic” Kinzhal missile, fired for the first time from the air on an Su-34 fighter. The attack took place from a Su-34 fighter-bomber armed with the highly-celebrated “dagger” missile, a weapon referred to as the Kinzhal hypersonic missile reportedly capable of traveling 10-times the speed of sound.
The Kinzhal hypersonic weapon has been used multiple times during Russia’s attacks on Ukraine, yet this recent announcement marks the first time the weapon has been fired from the air, a development of tactical and strategic relevance.
“The Kh-47M2 Kinzhal is a hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile that can reach a top speed of between Mach 10 and Mach 12 (10 or 12 times the speed of sound). It is based on the first stage of the 9K720 Iskander ground-launched ballistic missile, with the addition of a booster to bring it to hypersonic speeds in the atmosphere. Based on its similarities with the Iskander, its mass is estimated at around 4,300 kilograms (9,500 pounds),” an essay in Aerotime says.
Should the Russian military actually succeed in launching a hypersonic weapon from the air, that would introduce a new measure of threats posed to both Ukraine and NATO. An Air-Launched hypersonic missile, for example, could quickly vary its angle of attack and also fly closer-in to targets for attacks at much closer “stand-in” ranges.
The US Air Force has paused it Air-Launched Rapid-Response Weapon (ARRW) due to technical challenges, a circumstance which suggests that the US could be behind Russia with hypersonic weapons if Russia’s “dagger” operates as advertised.
However, Russian state media has a history of “hyping” weapons capability to a visible extent, and it is not clear what kind of Kinzhal arsenal the Russian military actually operates with. Several news reports suggest they may not have a large stockpile of the “dagger” weapons. Furthermore, the Kinzhal may not fully function in a hypersonic capacity or fly with precision-targeting or an ability to strike targets on the move. Achieving hypersonic speeds is much more achievable than “sustaining” hypersonic speeds, so the Kinzahl may or may not have been effective against Ukraine should it not be able to sustain hypersonic flight and align with a precision-targeting trajectory.
The Pentagon, by contrast, is already working on its Long Range Hypersonic Weapon, a missile which will in the future operate with a “tech insertion” capable of enabling the weapon to track and destroy moving targets.
Su-34 Fighter-Bomber Fires “Dagger” Kinzhal missile
Regardless of the effectiveness of an air-launched hypersonic missile, firing a weapon at hypersonic speeds from the air presents a new mixture of challenges for Ukrainians, particularly if used from Russia’s versatile Su-34.
Russia’s Su-34 “fighter-bomber” mix presents unique and potentially unparalleled threats as the aircraft is both somewhat modern and aligned with cutting-edge 4th-generation fighter jet upgrades.
In terms of external appearance, the Su-34 very much resembles its similar fighter jet variants such as the Su-27 and Su-35.
However, it is massive size is, by comparison, capable of operating with eight tons of precision bombs and cruise missiles, according to an interesting 2017 write up on the aircraft from Russia Beyond.
The aircraft has room for a kitchen, large enough crew space to sleep two airmen, and can travel as far as 7,000 km without needing to refuel. The Russia Beyond report identifies the Su-34 as a “duckbill” aircraft, as its nose is flattened into a horizontal, flat configuration.
Although a larger aircraft, the Su-34 does resemble the slightly stealthy 4th-generation Russian airframes such as the Su-27 and Su-35. However, the Su-34s empty weight is listed at nearly 50,000 pounds compared with the Su-27s 36,000-pound empty weight.
The largest difference is perhaps found in its payload capacity as the Su-34’s maximum take-off weight is just about 100,000 pounds, something which represents an ability to operate with a massive amount of weapons.
The Su-27 max take-off weight, by comparison, is only 67,000 pounds. To add perspective, a max take-off weight of 99,000 pounds does give new mission options to the Su-34, it is still less than four times the 414,000-pound max takeoff weight of large Russian bombers such as the well-known Tupolev Tu-95.
Su-34 bomber & fighter
Apart from an ability to carry and deliver a large bomber-like arsenal of precision weaponry, what distinguishes the Su-34 would seem to be its ability to simultaneously operate in a maneuverable, air-to-air, and air-to-ground fighter jet capacity.
The aircraft would be more vulnerable than its much faster, lighter, and more maneuverable counterparts such as the Su-27, as its speed is listed as only Mach 1.8. Yet, it nonetheless does seem to introduce air combat capabilities not typically associated with bombers.
A dual-mission scope of this kind clearly opens up operational possibilities as the Su-34 could shift from air-to-ground attacks to higher-altitude precision-bombing campaigns, therefore reducing the overall number of airframes needed for a given attack mission.
This widens and streamlines the mission envelope, particularly in situations where Russia might have an air superiority edge and not need as many Su-27s. In this kind of scenario, an Su-34 could both perform air-combat and ground attack missions while also introducing glide and precision-bombing options to a larger degree.
Interestingly, the U.S. does not seem to have an equivalent in certain respects, as the B1-B bomber does not operate with fighter-jet-like capabilities and the B-2 and B-52 are pure bombing platforms. U.S. 4th-and-5th-generation fighter jets, such as the F-35 and F-15, are able to perform impactful “bombing” missions with precision weapons as well, just to a lesser extent.
This raises the question that Russia’s Su-34, while introducing potentially unparalleled versatility, could be an aircraft “stuck” between missions. Meaning it is too large and heavy to truly be effective as a fighter yet far too small to be sufficiently impactful as a bomber.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – the Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
