Russian Nukes Now in Belarus: Putin May See a “Winnable” Tactical Nuclear Option

by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington DC) 

If Russian President Vladimir Putin’s consistent threatening to use nuclear weapons is purely a manipulative ploy to hold the world hostage with the prospect of large scale annihiliation .. and prevent NATO and the West from intensifying its support to Ukraine … it may have been working to some extent. 

Suppose Putin is a rational actor with a pronounced survival instinct who would not actually risk quickly ending his life and autocratic rule in Russia in a nuclear exchange? Perhaps his repeated nuclear threats are merely inflammatory rhetoric aligned with Russia’s well-documented “escalate to win” nuclear weapons posture. 

Conversely, does the West want to take the chance that Putin is purely manipulating and bluffing and provoke him beyond measure? Perhaps, despite his history of maintaining power and exhibiting a recognizable will to survive and persist, Putin may in fact determine some kind of nuclear attack might not end his life and rule in Russia?

President Biden, and many other are now saying that Putin’s inclination to use nuclear weapons, perhaps with a mind to determining that some kind of limited nuclear exchange would be winnable, is extremely real. 

Russian Tactical Nuclear Weapons in Belarus

For the first time since the days of the Soviet Union, Russia has now moved tactical nuclear weapons beyond its borders into Belarus, a move which further suggests Putin may in fact be inclined to use them.