by Logan Williams, Warrior Editorial
Putin’s brutal, massacrous invasion of Ukraine has dragged on for nearly two years, and the Russian Army has made little progress. Until now, the courage of the innocent Ukrainian people, and their ability to make ingenious use of limited and infrequent Western arms shipments, has enabled the survival of the Ukrainian nation.
Much has been said, up to this point, of the “opportunity” that the Russo-Ukranian War poses for the United States and the West to demonstrate the capabilities of Western equipment, to identify the weaknesses in the performance of Western technology in relatively large-scale warfare, and to deplete Russian arms stockpiles. This strategy amounts to using the Ukrainian people’s nightmare as an opportunity to field-test the West’s arsenal.
Little has been said, however, about the opportunity for Russia to learn and adapt in much the same manner.
Just days ago, it was reported by the Eurasian Times that Russia had modified its KH-101, the Russian military’s most modern and troublesome air-launched cruise missile, enabling it to launch flares as a counter measure against Ukrainian air-defense systems. The KH-101 was already designed with stealth characteristics, giving it a radar signature of approximately 0.01m2, and which assist the missile in evading radar homing-based air defense systems, such as the United States’ Raytheon Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) system. These flares, however, are not intended to flummox the United States’ Patriot SAM system — rather, these are thermal decoys that are intended to degrade the capability of man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS) based upon thermal homing (i.e., “heat seeking”) technology. These MANPADS, such as the United States’ FIM-92 Stinger surface-to-air missile, are singularly responsible for upholding the air defenses of northern Ukraine. Notably, the introduction of thermal decoys to the KH-101 platform also complicates the function of AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles (which use thermal homing guidance), one of the cheapest and most ubiquitous missiles in the United States’ arsenal, and which the United States as well as Ukraine have transformed from an air-to-air missile platform into a makeshift SAM air-defense system — in a project codenamed “FrankenSAM.”
Additionally, since the beginning of Putin’s invasion, Russia has revolutionized its battlefield tactics, in an effort to change the ever-worsening reality for Russian troops on the ground.
Russia has begun to use smaller combat units to probe Ukrainian defenses, in place of the battalion-sized waves that it had originally used at the war’s inception. These smaller combat units are filled with the most expendable of Russia’s infantry, usually convicts and conscripts, who are largely used as cannon-fodder, or as Retired Australian Army Major General Mich Ryan called them, “bullet catchers.” These initial waves are little more than desperate suicide attacks by poorly-trained and poorly-equipped troops, and they are indicative of the butchery that is characteristic within Putin’s army. The successive waves that follow represent an increase in combat experience and tactical importance. These are filled with less expendable troops, who attempt to capitalize upon any weaknesses in the Ukrainian defenses that were created by sacrificing the initial waves.
Additionally, Russia began to perform retreating defensive actions, in which the Russian troops vacated their defensive positions, and then as Ukrainian soldiers entered closed structures to clear the defensive positions, the Russian invaders would reduce those structures to rubble — using thermobaric explosives. These thermobaric explosives (also called fuel-air explosives) are an especially evident testament to the brutality of Russia’s war tactics. Thermobaric explosives function in two stages, the first detonation disperses fuel or incendiary powder which fills enclosed spaces and is often inhaled by any nearby personnel, and the second blast ignites the dispersed fuel, causing severe internal injuries and often leaving victims to suffer for several minutes before death.
The Russian adaptation of its KH-101, to include thermal decoys, can be accounted for relatively easily. The United States could organize the delivery of more radar-guided air defense systems, such as the Raytheon Patriot SAM, which will continue to down Russian missiles and outperform expectations, regardless of the newly-added flares. However, judging by the comments of the Pentagon Press Secretary, Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, at his press briefing on the 4th of January, that isn’t likely to happen in the near future. According to the Major General, President Biden has a remaining $4.2 Billion in Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), but no replenishment funds remain and no additional funds have been allocated by Congress. The Presidential Drawdown Authority allows the President of the United States to reduce the size of the United States’ arsenal by delivering military aid to a foreign ally, often in a matter of days or weeks, which is a much faster timeline than the more traditional sale of weapons to a foreign ally. The Presidential Drawdown Authority is provided for by Section 506 (a)(1) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, which requires that “an unforeseen emergency exists which requires immediate military assistance to a foreign country or international organization.” According to the Foreign Assistance Act, Presidential Drawdown Authority can only be used if the necessary arms or military aid cannot feasibly be provided, within the requisite timeline, by any other means. The PDA is a rarely used tool for the provision of foreign aid, and in the instance that the arms provided are not drawn from excess capacity, but rather from the essential stockpiles of the Department of Defense, these weapons need to be replaced. Without funds made available to replenish the United States’ stockpiles, President Biden cannot utilize the remaining $4.2 Billion of the PDA, without severely diminishing the United States’ military readiness.
In other words, each Patriot battery costs approximately $1.1 Billion and the United States is out of money.
Alternatively, the United States’ could counter the new KH-101 adaptation by encouraging its allies to provide an increased number of alternative MANPADS, those guided with manual command-line-of-sight (MCLOS) guidance systems, or semi-automatic command-line-of-sight (SACLOS) guidance systems, which are not sensitive to flares because they do not rely upon thermal homing. One of the most sought-after CLOS systems is British designed and produced, the Thales Air Defense Starstreak SACLOS MANPAD. The
United Kingdom has already delivered several of these MANPAD systems to Ukrainian troops, and has conducted the necessary training to prepare the operators, however, it will likely take time for the manufacturer to produce additional systems for delivery to Ukraine — time which the Ukrainian troops do not have. Another alternative SANCLOS system is the Swedish designed RBS-70, which is also already operating in Ukraine. MCLOS guidance systems require far greater training to operate than SACLOS systems, or traditional “heat seeking” MANPADS such as the U.S.’ Stinger, and thus, are likely not feasible for rapid deployment in Ukraine.
If one thing has become clear, however, it is that the longer this war drags on, the more Russia’s defeat is going to require.
Just as Russia’s armed forces were able to utilize the experience garnered through their involvement in the Syrian Civil War to refine their doctrine of hybrid war, as was described by an ingenious report on the subject by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Russian army has proven its ability to make critical adaptations on the battlefield in Ukraine, and thus, the Russian invaders grow more brutal and dangerous by the day.
The best thing that could happen for Ukraine, Europe, the United States, and the rest of the West, is for Congress to take immediate action upon returning to session. It is time to end the vacuity and the political posturing on this issue. Only by providing President Biden and the Department of Defense the necessary funding to provide meaningful military aid to Ukraine – in particular, the funding to provide additional Patriot missile batteries to the Ukrainian troops – can we ensure a decisive victory against the Russian aggressors and continue to deter our enemies in other geostrategic regions around the globe.
