by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Ukraine’s anti-armor tactics, dispersed hit-and-run ambushes and surprise attacks on intersections, crossroads and narrowly configured passageways against Russian invaders are known to have exacted a devastating impact upon Russian tanks. Since the earliest days of the war, Ukrainian Javelin, NLAW and Carl Gustaf anti-armor weapons have been targeting and destroying advancing Russian armor using building and terrain to obscure attack positions and “top-down” attacks to strike Russian tanks where they are most vulnerable.
What may have begun as largely defensive movements to thwart and destroy a large-scale Russian mechanized invasion has evolved into a more significant, mechanized Combined Arms Maneuver ability to destroy Russian tanks using artillery, armored vehicles rockets and anti-armor weapons.
A former senior US Military official familiar with Ukrainian progress told Warrior that Russia is losing as many as 5-to-10 tanks a day. The official credited Ukrainian tactics, the arrival of weapons and a methodical, tactically proficient counterattack strategy.
While such an ongoing phenomenon may not be surprising to those closely following daily events in Ukraine, it does add key context and shed new light upon continued questions about the pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive. Some continue to wonder publicaly if Ukraine’s slow progress with its counteroffensive is indicative of problems ahead or the eventual failure or “stalling” of the counteroffensive. Multiple Pentagon and expert assessments, however, have explained the slow pace in completely different terms, suggesting that ongoing analysis of Ukraine’s tactics and progress thus far tells a story of steady, measured progress in the direction of ultimate victory, provided international weapons support continues.
Thousands of Tanks Destroyed
The continued destruction of Russian tanks, to include T-90s, T-80s and T-72s, simply compounds Russia’s well documented problem of losing hundreds if not thousands of tanks to Ukrainian attacks, Open source intelligence estimates by sites such as Oryx have documented the destruction of as many as 2,103 Russian tanks, and their experts caution that actual numbers are likely much higher as they only count what they are able to document. The Oryx site reports that 2,103 Russian tanks have been destroyed, damaged, abandoned, or captured. according to Oryx, which breaks down the 2,103 tanks as 1,323 destroyed, 120 damaged, 116 abandoned and 544 captured.
The former military official was also clear that Russian troops are attempting to hide among tall trees, knowing that Ukrainian ISR can quickly detect their movements on open terrain and offer key insights as to how best to optimize counterattacks.
The continued destruction of Russian tanks in more recent months throughout the conflict is likely a result of a number of interwoven variables to included continued anti-armor weapons attacks along with artillery and the continued arrival heavier, mechanized platforms to Ukraine. As of a recent assessment, the Ukrainians have been operating have been operating at least 186 Bradley vehicles and hundreds of Strykers, force power now added to by the Pentagon’s announcement that Abrams tanks are now arriving.
A key part of this equation can be traced to how Ukraine’s effective combat tactics and Combined Arms Maneuver approach, combined with Russian morale, strategic and tactical problems, have generated a combat circumstance wherein two Russians are being killed for every one Ukrainian. There is a massive disparity when it comes to soldier casualties, as available independent statistics show Russia has suffered twice as many combat deaths and casualties compared with Ukraine.
Methodical, deliberate Ukrainian tactics are also likely part of this as their forces appears to be emphasizing a careful counterattack seeking to dismantle and destroy Russia’s elaborate, layered defenses in an effective and highly survivable way. Outgoing Joint Chief of Staff Gen. Mark Milley has said that, despite the discussion about Ukraine’s slowly moving counteroffensive, the Ukrainians have managed to reclaim as much as 54-percent of previously held Russian territory. He also likened the slow advances through barbed wire, mines and defensive positions to a “World War I” type of slow-advancing trench warfare. Perhaps Ukraine’s slow but steady succcess suggests that more progress is on the way and that attacking forces are likely to continue to breakthrough using measured, yet highly lethal and effective tactics.
Milley has called Russia’s defense “defense in depth.”
“This is a defensive series of belts that the Russians have put in with complex obstacles, minefields, dragon’s teeth, barb wire, strong points and so on and so forth. It’s a defense in depth,” Milley said.“Ukrainians have penetrated several layers of this defense. It is not 100 percent penetrated yet, but they’ve penetrated several of the layers and they’re going very slow, preserving their combat power and very deliberately through this defensive belt that stretches the entire length and breadth of Russian-occupied Ukraine.”
Yet another nuance is that Ukrainian attackers may well be moving slowly by design given that the continued arrival of tanks, weapons and more heavily armed vehicles are likely to massively improve their ability to penetrate Russian formations and actually reclaim ground. Therefore, Ukrainian success destroying Russian tanks and armored formations is likely to not only continue but potentially increase.
Kris Osborn is President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
