Ukrainian Counterattack Headed to “Take-Back” Crimean Penninsula

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

(Washington DC) 

Many recall the Russian 2014 annexation of Crimea in which Putin’s forces invaded and took-back the Crimean Peninsula. The US and NATO watched closely nearly 10 years ago and former Commanding General of Army Futures Command Gen. John Murray called Russia’s military performance in Crimea a “wake-up” call for the US military.  

Observers credited the Russian military for effectively employing cutting edge EW warfare tactics, ISR, drone attacks and manned-unmanned teaming. 

Russia’s military performance caused concern at the Pentagon all those years ago, yet Ukraine’s military seems to have re-written the script and changed the West’s assessment of the Russian military. While the Pentagon is by no means dismissing the Russian military as a threat, its performance throughout this past year has raised many questions.  

In fact, Russia’s inept combat performance is leading Ukraine to want to “reverse” the loss of Crimea from 2014 and “take back” the territory from Russia.  The possibility is looking increasingly realistic. 

If Ukraine decides to attack Crimea and make an ambitious move to reclaim its territory lost in 2014, would that immediately start a conflict between Russia and NATO? Given that Ukraine is already launching a counteroffensive into key Russian held areas, it would not seem likely that such a move would or should instantly spark a confrontation between Russia and NATO.

Putin, however, sees this differently and has reportedly indicated that a Russian attack on Ukraine would constitute a violation of a “red-line” kind of limitation, and therefore provoke a Russian war with NATO.