By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
Despite persistent headlines about the reportedly slow pace of its ongoing counteroffensive, Ukraine has now succeeded in liberating over “54 percent” of Russian-occupied Ukraine and is making slow, steady deliberate progress against “layered” Russian defenses, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told reporters at the Ukraine Contact Group.
“There’s about a couple of hundred thousand Russian troops that remain in Russian-occupied Ukraine. They’ve suffered a tremendous amount of casualties in their ground forces over time,” Milley said.
There is a reason that progress with the counteroffensive has been slow moving, Milley explained, as Russia has constructed an elaborate matrix of “layered” defenses.
Milley called Russia’s defense “defense in depth.”
“This is a defensive series of belts that the Russians have put in with complex obstacles, minefields, dragon’s teeth, barb wire, strong points and so on and so forth. It’s a defense in depth,” Milley said.
Milley explained that Ukraine’s movements have been methodical, deliberate and measured to both ensure progress yet also preserve combat power for a prolonged fight.
“Ukrainians have penetrated several layers of this defense. It is not 100 percent penetrated yet, but they’ve penetrated several of the layers and they’re going very slow, preserving their combat power and very deliberately through this defensive belt that stretches the entire length and breadth of Russian-occupied Ukraine,” Milley said.
These Russian defenses are part of the reason why Ukraine’s counteroffensive has been progressing steadily, yet slower than what may have been anticipated or wished for. There are tactical, strategic and humanitarian reasons why Ukraine might be pursuing its counteroffensive in a deliberate, methodical or more measured way. As Milley said, Ukrainians likely wish to preserve both lives and combat power as they progressively defeat, dismantle or “break through” Russian defenses. Certainly Ukrainian commanders wish to reduce the loss of life and move with precision when countering Russian minefields, trenches and fortified defenses. Ukraine is also operating at a numbers deficit, meaning that, despite their combat success, they likely have fewer soldiers than the Russian Army. Long-term victory in the conflict, therefore by extension, depends upon continued survival of large numbers of Ukrainian fighters.
Yet another strategic reason why Ukraine is moving slowly may relate to the continued arrival of weapons and heavy armor. As time passes, not only will Ukraine receive more ammunition, countermine technology and weapons, but they will also receive more large platforms such as Abrams tanks, F-16 fighter jets and armored Bradley Infantry Fighting vehicles.
Milley on Weapons Trajectory Evolution
Perhaps with this in mind, Milley detailed what could be described as a progression, trajectory or “evolution” of weaponry throughout the Ukraine conflict. What began as an extremely successful, if unexpected, anti-armor campaign evolved into a rocket and artillery war to a certain extent before becoming what it is now, a slow land campaign advance heavily reliant upon large armored platforms to “hold” ground taken back from Russian occupiers. Anti-armor weapons such as the Javelin and Stinger anti-aircraft weapons were successful in repelling, and even destroying, Russia’s initial invasion, taking back Russian occupied areas requires more than defensively minded ambush, hit-and-run types of attacks. Sure enough, the arrival of HIMARS and GMLRS were equally paradigm-changing, if in a different way, as it enabled Ukrainians to blunt, stop or destroy mobile Russian missile launchers able to target and attack civilian areas from hundreds of miles away, beyond the reach of standard artillery. Without air superiority, the only way to stop these attacks on civilian areas was to target them from the ground with long-range missiles. This was paradigm-changing for the Ukrainians, yet taking the next critical step of reclaiming ground held by Russians requires yet another shift toward a greater use of heavy armor. As weeks and months go by, sure enough Ukraine continues to receive growing numbers of armored vehicles, and the Pentagon now says Abrams tanks will arrive in Ukraine “this Fall.”
Milley offered an interesting assessment of this weapons “trajectory,” an explanation which seems to shed further light upon the timing and slow, but steady progress of Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
“In the beginning, it was Javelins and Stingers that helped stop the initial Russian onslaught. Then air defense munitions and artillery enabled them to protect their skies and impose heavy costs on the invaders. Long-range fires and GMLRS and HIMARS followed, which allowed the Ukrainians to strike critical nodes deep in the Russian rear.Next was armor and mechanized infantry fighting vehicles, breaching equipment, all of which strengthened Ukrainian maneuver warfare and allowed them to conduct the current counteroffensive,” Milley said. “This is Ukraine’s fight. It is their story, their battle. Ukraine has not asked any other country to fight for them. All they are asking for is help, help with materiel and training. And we, collectively, are all here to support Ukraine so they may remain free, independent and sovereign.”
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – the Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
