The Arrival of F-16s in Ukraine Will Change the Combat Equation

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

Ukrainian pilots are moving much closer to flying attack missions against Russian air and ground forces from F-16s, as training and preparations continue prior to the expected arrival of the aircraft in Ukraine. In recent weeks, the Pentagon has decided to support Ukraine’s war against Russia by supporting the delivery of Western F-16s. Ukrainian pilot training and preparation is now going on with US allies in key parts of Europe. 

“We heard from the co-leads of the F-16 Training Coalition, Denmark and the Netherlands. They continue to make progress on a cohesive training plan and to help some very eager Ukrainian pilots learn to fly fourth-generation aircraft,” Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters recently at the Pentagon, according to a Pentagon transcript.

Unless decisive air superiority can be established, something which might require 5th-gen stealth or large 4th-generation formations, the presence of F-16s might not have the kind of hoped-for enormous impact. The simple reason for this may simply be that Russia operates and maintains an extensive network of high-tech, advanced air defenses which might prove very difficult for non-stealthy 4th-generation aircraft to overcome.

“Ten F-16s are $2 billion, so the Russians have hundreds of fourth- and fifth-generation airframes. So if they’re going to try to match the Russians one for one, or even, you know, two-to-one, you’re talking about a large number of aircraft. That’s going to take years to train the pilots, years to do the maintenance and sustainment,” Milley said.

Certainly the Pentagon and its Ukraine-supporting allies appear committed for the long haul, and the Pentagon has already set up a contracting mechanism with which to sustain long-term weapons production for Ukraine, yet it is not yet clear if a small number of F-16s will have an immediate and decisive impact.

The answer to this likely depends upon a series of variables such as the range, fidelity and accuracy of the F-16’s radar, sensors, targeting and weapon systems. Russia does have 773 fighter jets, according to Globalfirepower.com, as compared to Ukraine’s 69. Yet, if even somewhat mysteriously, the Russian have been unable to achieve air superiority in any measurable way over any critical areas of Ukraine. Somehow, despite operating at a massive numbers deficit, Ukrainian forces have been able to marshall the resolve, tactical efficiency and mixture of air-and-ground weapons to largely neutralize Russian air attacks.