By Cameron Curtis
Zelensky’s Gamble
For weeks, Volodymyr Zelensky has been trying to convince the leaders of the US, UK, France, and Germany to support long-range missile strikes into Pre-2014 Russian territory. He has not received approval because such attacks would constitute a dangerous escalation.
Last Thursday, in a desperate effort to stave off defeat, Zelensky presented his “Victory Plan” to the European Council Summit in Brussels. The plan has shocked the world and left western leaders shaking. Here is the story.
Ukraine’s Kursk II Offensive
In August, to make headlines and pressure Russia, Ukraine transferred its best troops from the east and south to Sumy in the north. Sumy sits across the border from Kursk in Russia. Ukraine committed its last NATO tanks, including up to 28 Abrams, German Leopard IIs, and a handful of British Challenger IIs. The US and Germany gave Ukraine Patriot and IRIS-T missile batteries to protect Kiev. Ukraine forward-deployed those to Sumy. From there, Ukraine invaded Russia at a quiet, thinly defended sector of the front. Their objective was almost certainly to capture the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant and a number of Russian nuclear weapons storage depots.
Things looked good for a while. German Bundeswehr officers cheered the “Big Cats” rolling on the steppes of Kursk. The sight of German tanks, emblazoned with iron crosses and Nordic runes, rolling through Kursk, drove the Russian troops insane with rage.
The Kursk invasion enjoyed early success, but was halted by Russian border guards who held until reinforced by Russian Naval Infantry (Marines) and a fierce Chechen Akhmat Special Forces battalion. Russian missile and air power was decisive. The attack was stopped miles from its objectives.
Rather than withdrawing to fight another day, Ukraine left its elite troops on the flat, exposed steppes. Every day, the media was filled with analysis of the daring Ukrainian offensive. President Zelensky instructed his generals to fight on so that he could present the narrative of the Kursk invasion as a success when he visited New York and Washington D.C. in September. There, he would present his “Victory Plan” to President Biden, Vice President Harris, and former President Trump.
The result was predictable. Ukrainian forces were left milling around on the open steppes and were slaughtered by Russian firepower. Iskander missiles destroyed the Patriots, IRIS-Ts, and concentrations of vehicles. Artillery and FPV suicide drones annihilated the armor. Tanks, Bradleys, Schüzenpanzer Marders, and really nice Swedish CV90 IFVs were sliced open by Russian infantry armed with Kornet ATGMs.
Ukrainian objectives were never reached. Russian forces secured the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant. The press was filled with stories about the thousands of square miles the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) had occupied. Reporters never bothered to examine the ground. Soldiers know the ground is everything. The steppes of Kursk are pancake-flat and unpopulated. Most of it looks like the flatland of Montana or West Texas. The towns the AFU reported capturing were three buildings and an outhouse. Forests were patchy, with thin, almost nonexistent canopies. In short, there is no cover and concealment in Kursk. The biggest town, Sudzha, is not much more than a hamlet.
The AFU had rolled onto a shooting gallery and President Zelensky ordered them to sit on it. Worse, he diverted even more reinforcements from the southern and eastern fronts and shoved them into the Kursk salient. The Russians patiently cut them off with a double envelopment. Meanwhile, without Ukraine’s best fighters, fortified towns in the Donbas fell one after another. Without the elite, hard-right volunteer brigades (often acting as “motivational troops”), Ukrainian conscripts ran. Russian troops advanced through empty fortifications.
Ukraine was out of vehicles, out of artillery, out of ammunition, out of air defense. Germany had 20 Patriot batteries before the war. It gave 15 to Ukraine, and all were destroyed. It has no more Leopard IIs to give. Germany is sending an armored brigade to the Baltics to “strengthen NATO’s eastern flank.” It is little more than a battalion without tanks. It is not expected to attain full strength before 2027. Why? All of Germany’s operable Leopard IIs were blown up in Ukraine. Early in October, Ukraine requested 200 more Bradley IFVs from the Pentagon. Secretary Austin’s jaw dropped. Why? The last two hundred we gave were blown up.
Most important, Ukraine is out of trained men. Conscripts pulled off the street are sent directly to the front where they are given rudimentary instruction on how to operate a rifle. They are killed by artillery or glide bombs before they have a chance to fire it.
By the end of September, the stage was set for the presentation of President Zelensky’s “Victory Plan.”
Deep Strikes into Pre-2014 Russia
Volodymyr Zelensky hailed as the Winston Churchill of the 21st Century, addresses the United States Congress, the British House of Commons, the UN, and all other august world bodies while unshaven and dressed in a sweaty green T-shirt. Compared to him, Fidel Castro and Che Guevara are paragons of sartorial elegance. The former actor and skilled pianist is famous for his 2022 line, “I don’t need a ride, I need ammunition.”
Everywhere Zelensky goes, he asks for money and weapons. For three years, he has been extraordinarily successful. The countries of the collective west have delivered. Since 2022, the NATO countries plus Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand have emptied their armories for Ukraine. Israel donated half a million rounds of 155mm artillery ammo well before October 7. Sorry, it’s gone. British armories are so empty the rats have fled to the surrounding fields. The British army has forty – yes, forty – operable Challenger II tanks remaining. Cavalry squadrons are operating at troop strength.
Ukraine is desperate to take the war to the Russian people. Ukraine wants Russian civilians to feel pain so they will force President Putin to withdraw from Crimea and four eastern oblasts. Zelensky has requested long-range British and American missiles to strike deep into Pre-2014 Russia.
Understand: Storm Shadow cruise missiles and ATACMs require American and British soldiers to evaluate satellite data, program flight paths, and fire the missiles. Russia has stated that, should US and British missiles be fired into Pre-2014 Russia, Russia will Russia will retaliate against any foreign country involved.
Britain has been Ukraine’s staunchest supporter. It’s given Ukraine all its 155mm ammunition, all its armor, and all its artillery. It’s given Ukraine Storm Shadow cruise missiles and helped Ukraine use them to attack Crimea and the Kerch bridge. There are deniable reports of SBS operators helping Ukraine launch sea drones against Russian ships.
When Zelensky asked the US and UK to help launch missiles into Russia, he got a mixed response. Britain was happy to help; Secretary Austin’s response was a flat “no.” Britain did not challenge American guidance.
Desperate for assistance, with his front collapsing, Zelensky put together his Victory Plan and traveled to Washington and New York. He presented it to President Biden, VP Harris, and former President Trump.
President Biden refused to discuss deep missile strikes into Pre-2014 Russia. He deferred the discussion to the Ramstein Contact Group in October. At Ramstein, allied countries discuss support for Ukraine.
Zelensky managed to insult Senator Vance and former President Trump, who canceled their meeting. After an obsequious letter of apology from Zelensky (that Trump promptly made public), the former president relented and met Zelensky in New York. The fifteen-minute meeting ended with Trump promising the press that “he would end the war very quickly” because he had great relationships with Putin and Zelensky. Zelensky interjected that his relationship with Trump was better than Trump’s relationship with Putin. Trump laughed and said “Well, it takes two to tango.”
Biden then cancelled the Ramstein Contact Group meeting indefinitely. He obviously did not want to discuss deep strikes with Zelensky. To add insult to injury, he then agreed to visit Germany this week to receive an award from Scholz. Biden specifically added that the time allotted to the trip would not permit a meeting with Zelensky.
Apart from a few die-hards, it is obvious to most collective western leaders that the Ukraine war is lost. They are struggling with how to deal with it. They have to prevent Ukraine from drawing them into a dangerous escalation, and manage Ukraine’s collapse at the same time. Most had hoped to convince Zelensky to go to President Putin and ask to freeze the conflict. This can be presented to the western public as a “Russian defeat” and a “NATO victory” – because Ukraine is still free. Russia won’t go for it. Certainly not after Zelensky’s Victory Plan speech.
Zelensky’s Victory Plan
Last Thursday, Zelensky addressed the European Council. By this time, he was thoroughly beside himself. He presented his Victory Plan and demanded it be accepted. In essence, the Victory Plan consists of a number of points, three secret protocols (easily figured out by implication and Zelensky’s subsequent utterances), and an ultimatum. To summarize:
- Ukraine wants an immediate formal invitation to join NATO. Implied is Ukraine’s inclusion under the protection of America’s nuclear umbrella and the basing of American nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil.
- Ukraine wants deep missile strikes into Pre-2014 Russia. Ukraine wants continued offensives deep into Russia modeled on the Kursk offensive.
- Ukraine wants NATO neighbors to fire on Russian air assets from their own territory. This implies the establishment of a no-fly zone.
- Ukraine wants a conventional NATO presence in Ukraine to protect it from Russia. This also implies establishment of a no-fly zone. In simple terms, it constitutes the basing of a NATO army (boots on the ground) on Ukrainian soil.
- If the above are not granted, Ukraine will develop its own nuclear bomb.
There was a sweetener. Zelensky said if the US wanted to save a few billion dollars and withdraw troops from Europe, hardened Ukrainian troops could take their place. That was not original. It had been proposed previously by former UK prime minister Boris Johnson. Certainly Germans wouldn’t mind having AFU troops take over US bases in Germany.
Zelensky claimed he had presented this plan to former President Trump in New York, and Trump diplomatically said “That’s a fair argument.” Zelensky tried to insinuate that Trump backed the plan. That cannot be the case. The Victory Plan conclusively destroys any hope of a negotiated settlement with Russia, and Trump stated at the press conference that he would make peace very quickly between the parties. Trump seemed upbeat and positive; Zelensky stressed-out and frustrated. He certainly presented the plan. Trump was non-committal.
Can Ukraine Build a Nuclear Bomb?
The short answer is “Yes – in a few years if the Russians leave them alone.” Not two weeks, as anonymous Ukrainian officials have suggested, inspired by recent excitement surrounding Iran. Iran probably already has gun-type A-bombs.
Following the Budapest Memorandum of 1994, Soviet nuclear weapons stored on Ukrainian territory were removed to the Russian Federation. Let us be clear: Ukraine has never had nuclear weapons. There seem to be dozens of articles reporting and debating this issue from ignorance. All the people who say Ukraine should not have given up its nukes are inadequately informed. American nuclear weapons are stored on German and Turkish soil. Germany and Turkiye are not nuclear powers because the weapons are under American control. The nuclear weapons on Ukrainian soil belonged to the Soviet Union, were secured by Russian Federation troops (the 12th GUMO), and were under the command and control of the Russian Federation.
From Wikipedia’s summary: “Until Ukraine gave up the Soviet nuclear weapons stationed on its soil, it had the world’s third-largest nuclear weapons stockpile of which Ukraine had physical but no effective operational control. Russia controlled the codes needed to operate the nuclear weapons through electronic Permissive Action Links and the Russian command and control system.”
By 2012, all stocks of enriched uranium, apart from small research quantities, were removed to Russia. International and multinational observers supervised the removal and kept careful inventories of the weapons and fissile material.
Conclusion
Upon hearing Zelensky’s Victory Plan, Prime Minister Orban of Hungary said, “He’s mad, Hungary will have nothing to do with it.”
Other European representatives seem to be shaking with shock. The Victory Plan is nothing less than a desperate attempt to blackmail Europe and NATO to jump into World War III against Russia. It is unlikely the plan will be accepted, and Zelensky has probably destroyed his credibility with world leaders. He has also probably destroyed all chances of third parties like Brazil and China mediating a ceasefire. Supporters have certainly told him he went too far and exhorted him to walk it back.
President Putin stated yesterday, “Under no circumstances will Russia allow this to happen.”
Putin also pointed out that Zelensky wanted nuclear bombs as far back as the Munich Security Conference of February 2022. He will undoubtedly characterize Zelensky as a madman and use Zelensky’s words to justify the invasion once more to his BRICS colleagues at the Kazan Summit.
Too late, Zelensky is trying to walk back his nuclear ultimatum, but it is out there.
This Essay First Appeared in SOFREP
Expect further developments next week.
About the Author
You may contact the author at: [email protected]
Cameron Curtis is the author of the Breed action thriller series, available on Amazon. The stories are adrenaline-fuelled and emotionally engaging. The novels combine credible premises based on current events, technical detail, and propulsive plotting.
Check out his new Breed thriller, BLOWBACK, here: BLOWBACK by Cameron Curtis available for download now. The story involves the theft of a thermonuclear bomb (H-Bomb) that includes a fission device like the ones described in this article. The bomb was stolen from a Russian nuclear storage facility maintained close to the Ukrainian border. A number of such legacy Soviet facilities still exist left where they are through Russian carelessness and historical accident.
