Will Ukraine “Conquer” Russia? Storm on Moscow? Why Not?

By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

The arrival of more Bradley infantry carriers, Abrams tanks and Leopard 2s from Germany just may mean Ukraine could someday take over Russia? Does that seem like a far-fetched, massive exaggeration? Would that be at all realistic? Would Ukraine want to do that? 

Why not? Perhaps Ukraine could further extend its counteroffensive and, over time, march on Moscow to bring democracy to the war-damaged country?  There are many variables to consider and many unknowns.  Given that Ukraine’s counteroffensive has met with some successful initial results, perhaps the pace at which Russian artillery and tanks are being destroyed is such the Ukraine can advance and “hold” previously occupied Russian territory. As more mechanized forces and heavy armor arrive in Ukraine from NATO and other supporting countries, the ability to do this is likely to massively increased. 

Also, a former senior US official familiar with the Ukraine war told Warrior that Ukrainians are having a massive amount of success destroying Russian artillery as part of the ramp up to Russian artillery.  The earliest phase of the counteroffensive, the official said, involved the heavy use of HIMARS and Storm Shadow hits on Russian barracks and command centers, the official explained, who further suggested that the Russians will simply have a very hard time slowing down the Ukrainian counteroffensive. 

“Russian trenches, front-line troops, and dragon teeth barriers will do little to slow down the Ukrainians offensive—the Ukrainians will have nine mechanized brigades punching through a static defense line with another nine or ten brigades in reserve,” the former official said. 

Does this mean Ukraine could march on Moscow? May seem unlikely as Ukraine likely does not want to spread itself too thin and weaken its hold on its own country in anyway, yet Russia’s strongest military effort may have already been expended. Perhaps the Russian force is so depleted that Ukraine could in fact both take back Crimea and also seize large parts of Russia? This would be feasible provided Russia did not go nuclear… and that possibility is likely to give pause to Ukrainian leaders considering 

Take Back Crimea

The recent drone attack on the Kerch Strait Bridge that connects Russia to the Crimean Peninsula begs the question of whether Ukraine aims to bring its attack inside of Russian territory, or even Russia itself.