By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
US Navy SSN Virginia-class attack submarines have already been to Australia in support of the fast-evolving US-UK-Australia AUKUS submarine collaborative arrangement which embeds Australian experts into the US industrial base, sells Australia nuclear-powered conventionally-armed submarines and increases both trilateral industrial base funding, submarine force posture and a massive uptick in collaborative patrols and submarine forward presence.
This AUKUS arrangement, in place now for several years, was recently fortified by a joint Pentagon-UK visit to Australia in preparation for future US Virginia-class patrol and new discussion of Austraian investment in the US industrial base.
“Obviously the AUKUS agreement and the substantial investments we’re seeing by the Australians down in Perth at HMAS Stirling to be able to ensure we have sufficient submarine infrastructure so we can begin rotating — rotating our submarines. They’re starting in 2027. We just had the first visit of a Virginia class submarine to Australia this summer, I think it was in August, and that was pretty notable. It was August 4th, in fact, the USS North Carolina went,” Dr. Mara Karlin, currently performing duties as the Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy recently told reporters, according to a DoD transcript upon returning from Australia with UK weapons developers.
Pillar 1 of AUKUS, as Karlin described, involves selling Australia submarines in preparation for Pillar II which expands the arrangement to include “advanced technology cooperation.”
“Congress is considering a handful of important legislative proposals that are critical to making AUKUS a reality, and one of those does include allowing the department to be able to accept contributions by the Australians into our submarine industrial base. I think that is historic. I’m not familiar with other examples of countries being — putting money into our industrial base,” Karlin said.
There are several critical, arguably urgent, reasons why AUKUS is considered so critical by the Pentagon, US Navy and White House. An interesting White House essay on AUKUS from earlier this year, called “Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS,” spells out key plans and goals for the program.
“As early as 2027, the United States and United Kingdom plan to begin forward rotations of SSNs to Australia to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system Starting in the early 2030s, pending Congressional approval, the United States intends to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines, with the potential to sell up to two more if needed. …In the late 2030s, the United Kingdom will deliver its first SSN-AUKUS to the Royal Navy. Australia will deliver the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia to the Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s,” the March 2023 White House essay states.
The AUKUS agreement is taking place within the broad context of vigorous US efforts to address its attack submarine “deficit,” a shortfall which is expected to grow in the near term years before being rectified longer term. For years now, Combatant Commander demand for attack submarines in the Pacific has outstripped available supply, a circumstance which has prompted US Navy, DoD and Congressional efforts to massively uptick the US submarine industrial base and also increase yearly production of Virginia-class attack submarines and jump from two per year up to three. The effort has been long standing and informed in recent years by several US Navy industrial base assessments.
Why are submarines so critical? Especially in the Pacific? Apart from an initial self-evident answer, Virginia-class attack submarines do introduce potentially paradigm-changing technological advances into the US Navy’s undersea fleet. Specifically, Block III and beyond Virginia-class submarines are built with fiber-optic cable, fly-by-wire computer navigation and unprecedented “quieting” technologies as described in a general way by the Navy. The technological enhancements woven into the Virginia-class boats do also increase the Virginia-class undersea ISR capability, as they can go survey enemy activities and search for threats along island and coastal areas with advanced sensors and sonar, bringing unrivaled intelligence gathering capabilities into areas less accessible to surface ships.
The US Navy of course seeks to sustain what many believe to be its undersea superiority against the Chinese, something of critical importance given the pace of Chinese Naval modernization and the fact that the PLA Navy is already the largest Navy in the world. The PRC is also not only adding shipyards, but doubling its destroyer force within five years and adding its third aircraft carrier. The PLA Navy seeks surface warfare overmatch and consistently voices its intention to annex Taiwan, a goal commensurate with the high frequency with which the Chinese conduct preparatory amphibious assaults in the Taiwan strait. While a larger surface fleet in terms of simple size does not instantly equate to maritime warfare superiority, particularly in light of massive US Navy upgrades to the technological sophistication and warfare capabilities of its surface fleet, yet it is nonetheless entirely feasible to posit that advanced US attack submarines could potentially “save” Taiwan.
These are likely some of the variables informing the rationale for AUKUS, a program which will not only build allied capacity but also greatly expand the US and allied undersea capabilities in the Pacific.
Kris Osborn is the Military Affairs Editor of 19 FortyFive and President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
