China Could Win a War Against America in the South China Sea

Here is the PLAN.

James Holmes [2]

U.S. and allied mariners and airmen, accordingly, must study China’s martial traditions, gleaning insight into how offshore active defense might unfold in the South China Sea. If you’re Beijing and have built up a seagoing militia, an impressive coast guard, Asia’s biggest indigenous navy, and a sizable arsenal of land-based weaponry to influence events at sea, how do you alloy those components into a sharp combat implement—and consolidate control over a semi-enclosed sea?

Last year China’s defense minister, General Chang Wanquan [3], implored the nation to ready itself for a “people’s war at sea [4].” The purpose of such a campaign? To “safeguard sovereignty” after an adverse ruling from the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea [5]. The tribunal upheld the plain meaning of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea [6] (UNCLOS), ruling [7] that Beijing’s claims to “indisputable sovereignty [8]” spanning some 80-90 percent of the South China Sea are bunk.

A strong coastal state, in other words, cannot simply wrest away the high seas [9] or waters allocated to weaker neighbors [10] and make them its own.

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