China’s Aggression Is Starting to Backfire

Beijing is wrong to think other countries will roll over when confronted.

byHuong Le ThuFollow @le2huong on TwitterL

There is an argument that the West got China wrong. It argues that the assumption that China’s economic opening would lead to its political liberalization and transformation into a “responsible stakeholder” was incorrect. In fact, American policy advisors even concluded that basing Washington’s policy towards China on these assumptions has been a failure. This point-of-view claims China is a country that not only has taken advantage of the rules-based world order but also one that got away with it abusing it. China has grown into a monstrous economic power that is not constrained by the global rules, but instead is a “ruthless stakeholder.”

Indeed, China is providing more and more evidence that it is not willing to abide by international law and does not hesitate to act unilaterally in matters it considers critical for its interests—such as in the South China Sea. Beijing’s four-no’s strategy to ignore the Arbitral Tribunal ruling from 2016—no participation, no acceptance, no recognition and no enforcement—remains one of most striking examples of open disregard for the rules-based international order. But such conclusion seems too generous for China and too premature. China’s ability to “shake” the current order is hard to deny, but changes in Washington—namely Trump’s policies—are more likely to have stronger ripples across the global rules-based order. Moreover, Beijing may have shaken the status quo, but has not necessarily reached its desired position and still is at risk of a stronger push-back from other countries.

China’s military activities in the South China Sea are not only a concern for its direct neighbors and claimants in the disputed waters; they present high risks and unwelcomed tensions to an already unstable region. Despite earlier assurances from China that it is not militarizing the artificial islands built in the South China Sea, the continued show of force undermines Beijing’s credibility and peaceful intentions. Military build-ups and actions have also become more prominent in the Taiwan Strait, where recently Beijing conducted war games. The question is why is Beijing risking its reputation, and potentially even confrontation, instead of asserting its global position peacefully?

Xi Jinping’s China is ambitious not only in laying out its strategic vision of a new order, but also in racing against time to implement that vision. That dream has many facets well beyond militarising artificial islands in the South China Sea. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) involves building ports in places ranging fromAfrica’s Djibouti to wharves in Vanuatu in the Pacific. China’s BRI also includes securing access to sea and land-routes globally—from the Arctic to Latin America—as well as proposing new global institutions such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). These are all elements of a unified plan for the extension of China’s global reach. Finally, all of these massive and potentially game-changing projects are seen as Xi Jinping’s flagship initiatives.

Beijing’s strategy to attain dominance has been primarily based on two key components. The first is incrementally asserting its territorial claims, even if doing so often includes open disregard for the rule of law. The second is offering economic inducements for states to play ball while forging close relationships with key political and business leaders, often with financial incentives.

By many accounts, China’s aggressive tactics in the South China Sea seem to have been successful, by both effectively undermining the rules-based order while continuing to expand the range of its Beijing’s operations. Whether the international community will respond stronger to China’s growing arrogance remains a question, but one thing is sure—while the international community (or certain actors in it) keeps pondering, Beijing has managed to gain the time necessary to further its military plans.