By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
(Washington DC) Massive destructive power may now be quietly and secretly lurking beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean, ensuring responsive 2nd-strike capability in the event the US is subject to nuclear attack.
Indeed a US Navy nuclear-armed Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine recently conducted a “port visit” to a Naval Base in Guam. The intent here is both clear and self-evident, and specifically cited in a Navy description of the deployment … “deterrence.” While the specific location and operational scope of a nuclear-armed submarine is never disclosed for security reasons, the existence of the USS Kentucky (SSBN) in Guam is unmistakably related to a message of strategic deterrence.
“The visit reflects the United States’ resolve and commitment to the Indo-Pacific region with continued extended deterrence to our regional allies and demonstrates the flexibility, survivability, readiness, and capability of U.S. Navy submarine forces,” an essay from US Submarine Forces, Fleet Forces Command says.
The concept of strategic deterrence, which is the very foundation of the Pentagon’s nuclear triad, is based on a fundamental paradox introducing the prospect of catastrophic destruction for the purpose of ensuring peace. It may seem like an unambiguous contradiction, yet that is precisely the intent. Strategic deterrence regarding nuclear submarines, which the Navy description calls the most survivable leg of the nuclear triad, is intended to prevent any nuclear-armed power from considering a first-strike nuclear attack. The USS Kentucky assures that any first=strike nuclear attack will be responded to with a devastating, massively destructive counterattack. The message is clear … any country attacking the US with nuclear weapons will be destroyed quickly. US Navy nuclear-armed ballistic missile submarines are armed wtih Trident IID5 nuclear missiles equipped with multiple re-entry vehicles and therefore capable of exacting large amounts of destruction upon an attacking country from thousands of miles away. The range of the Trident IID5 is known to be at or greater than 4,000 miles, therefore nuclear-armed Ohio-class submarines can secretly conduct clandestine deterrence missions from “unknown” locations thousands of miles away.
“Homeported at Naval Base Kitsap, Kitsap, Washington, USS Kentucky is a launch platform for submarine-launched ballistic missiles, providing the United States with its most survivable leg of the nuclear triad,” a Navy description reads.
Clearly the Pentagon and White House are clear that the US does not intend upon or even consider some kind of nuclear first strike, but rather bases its destructive weaponry purely upon responsive defenses. Should a potential adversary be assured of rapid and complete destruction, they certainly might be less inclined to contemplate nuclear attack as a realistic option.
China Threat
Sending a clear message that the US nuclear deterrence capacity is very much intact and effective may be a familiar DoD strategy, yet one has to consider the known reality that China’s explosive nuclear weapons expansion is by no means lost on the Pentagon. The Pentagon’s annual China reports consistently raise alarm about the pace of Chinese nuclear weapons modernization, and just several years ago former Commander of Strategic Command Adm. Charles Richard pointed out satellite photos showing ICBM “silos” being built on mainland China. China’s nuclear ambitions have been on the Pentagon’s radar for quite some time.
“We do believe that over the next decade, that China is likely to at least double the size of its nuclear stockpile in the course of implementing the most rapid expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history, China’s history,” Chad Sbragia, deputy assistant secretary of defense for China, told reporters last year according to a Pentagon transcript. “An ability to double the stockpile demonstrates a move away from their historical minimum deterrence posture.”
China’s Nuclear Ambitions
China’s massive and fast-paced push to add more nuclear weapons to its arsenal is fast changing the threat equation for U.S. leaders who see the country’s ongoing large-scale increase in Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) as a very “destabilizing” event.
U.S. Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall says China’s move to add hundreds of new land-based, fixed ICBM silos amounts to their developing a “first-strike” capability.
China’s ICBM Threat to US
“Most of their weapons have been mobile ICBMs, so this is a very destabilizing move and I am not sure they understand the risk they are taking. Whether they intend it or not … their move creates a first-strike capability. If they continue down this path to increase their ICBM force, then that is a de facto first-strike capability,” Kendall told reporters at the Air Force Association Symposium in 2022.
Long Range ICBMs
The Pentagon’s 2023 report on China cites three Nuclear Ballistic Missiles capable of hitting the US mainland directly from China. The report, called “Military and Security Development Regarding the People’s Republic of China,” specifies the range of China’s CSS4 Mod2 Mod3 as having an ability to reach 13,000km.
Two other nuclear missiles cited in the report can also reach the US from China, the DF-41 and CSS 10 Mod 2 able to reach 12,000km and 11,200km respectively. The distance between Beijing and Los Angeles is 10,084km, placing California within direct reach of all three of these Chinese nuclear missiles. China is also developing a precision nuclear strike capability with its DF-26 medium range anti-ship ballistic missile able to travel as far as 2,000 miles. Added to this threat circumstance, the PRC is also building new ground silo ICBM fields which will cumulatively contain as many as 300 silos, the Pentagon report says.
Kris Osborn is the President of Warrior Maven – the Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
