Navy Likely Needs 12 Carriers to Meet Chinese Threat

by Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization

The actual number of needed US Navy carriers has fluctuated often in recent years,  as the service has operated as few as 10 when required to yet also says more carriers are needed to secure international waterways and deter aggression from major world powers such as China. 

Combatant Commanders in specific areas around the world are tasked with protecting strategically vital international waterways to ensure safe passage of goods, services and supplies around the world. Former Secretary of the Navy Ray Maybus often made the point that more than 90-percent of global trade and commerce takes place on water, thus reinforcing the need to project power and bring maritime stability to otherwise tense or volatile areas of the world. 

There are also clear deterrence and maritime combat requirements related to the demand for carriers, particularly in place such as the Pacific. The US Navy, for instance, conducted “dual-carrier” operations in the Pacific to prepare for a contingency wherein the US Navy might need to operate an extremely large air-attack campaign across a dispersed operational envelope. Also, a carrier-launched air campaign in the Pacific would likely need greater numbers of fighters and surveillance aircraft, a possible reason why coordinated dual-carrier operations are needed. 

For years the Pentagon, Congress, and even the President have discussed the issue of how many aircraft carriers the U.S. Navy needs. As this discussion persists, the Navy seeks to best meet demands and respond to threats in an increasingly dangerous and fast-changing threat environment.

Power Projection and Aircraft Carriers

Nothing in the world can project power like a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier as it possesses the power to launch massive offensive strikes from waters offshore, holding targets and enemies at risk. This well-known and often-proven reality explains why the mere forward presence of a carrier can have a “calming” type of deterrent effect.

At times the Navy and Pentagon leadership have called for 11 carriers, and have most of the time in recent years asked for 12. However, the U.S. Navy now only operates 10 or 11 aircraft carriers, so it makes sense that the Navy’s previously released “Chief of Naval Operations Navigation Plan 2022” would call for 12 aircraft carriers as the Navy moves into the future.