By Kris Osborn, President, Center for Military Modernization
The Navy drone explosion continues and is expanding internationally as several fast-emerging Large Unmanned Surface Vehicles go on patrol in waters off Japan to advance interoperability, test and refine the boundaries of maritime vessel autonomy and coordinate disaggregated missions with key regional allies.
Two key 300-foot LUSV prototypes, the US Navy’s Mariner and Ranger, arrived recently in Yokusuka Japan to conduct semi-autonomous missions and likely work in close coordination with Japanese Self-Defense Forces, US Navy manned vessels and a host of surface, air or undersea unmanned systems.
Perhaps of greatest significance, these large vessels are an integral part of the Navy’s well-established Ghost Fleet program, a longstanding high-tech effort to enable large groups of surface unmanned systems to operate autonomously and semi-autonomously in close coordination with one another for various operations in a range of formations. Beginning with the Office of Naval Research years ago, the Ghost Fleet effort has made so much progress that it transitioned to the Navy … and is now embarking upon international missions. Ghost Fleet has made breakthrough progress in recent years, as advances in autonomy and new algorithms enable groups of unmanned surface vessels to share information with one another, coordinate missions specifics and adapt to changing maritime combat circumstances with little or no human intervention. Submarine hunting, forward reconnaissance, mine clearing and even attack missions can now be performed by forward unmanned systems operating with various degrees of autonomy.
Intended to support the Navy’s Small and Medium-class USVs, and network with undersea, air and surface drones, the LUSVs have the size, weight and power capability to operate large weapons systems and function as attack platforms. The Navy is of course clear that any use of lethal force will be decided by a human operating in a command and control capacity.
LUSV “Strike Payloads”
While much of the developmental specifics and plans regarding sensors, payload, radar and weapons integration is likely still being reviewed by the Navy as it examines and refines requirements, an interesting Sept. 5, Congressional Research Report refers to Navy thinking that indeed the large boats could be armed with “strike payloads” including anti-ship missiles.
“The Navy wants LUSVs to be low-cost, high-endurance, reconfigurable ships with ample capacity for carrying various modular payloads—particularly anti-surface warfare (ASuW) and strike payloads, meaning principally anti-ship and landattack missiles. Each LUSV could be equipped with a vertical launch system (VLS) with 16 to 32 missile-launching tubes,” the CRS report, called “Navy Large Unmanned Surface and Undersea Vehicles: Background and issues for Congress,” explains.
The CRS essay explains that the LUSVs are being engineered with various levels of semi-autonomous and autonomous operations with operators but “in-the-loop” or “on of the loop.”
“The LUSV will be capable of autonomous navigation, transit planning, and COLREGS-compliant12 maneuvering and will be designed with automated propulsion, electrical generation, and support systems. LUSV missions will be conducted with operators in-the-loop (with continuous or near-continuous observation or control) or on-the-loop (autonomous operation that prompts operator action/intervention from sensory input or autonomous behaviors),” the CRS report explains.
This is quite significant, as one of the most cutting edge applications of Pentagon AI-development includes the exploration of “out-of-the-loop” AI-enabled autonomy. The CRS report identifies “on-the-loop” operations wherein autonomous systems “prompt” operators to take action. Now, some researchers are now taking this one step further to optimize the tactical merits and possibilities introduced by AI-enabled autonomy.
Pentagon Doctrine – In-the-Loop Use of Lethal Force
Of course lethal force will, per Pentagon doctrine, require human “in-the-loop” command and control, the US military services are exploring possibilities for unmanned systems and weapons to operate autonomously for “non-lethal” missions such as defensive intercepts of incoming enemy attacks, coordinated reconnaissance and multi-domain command and control. AI-enabled computer processing speeds now enable unmanned ships to detect, track and, if needed, intercept or destroy incoming enemy fire. Such a defensive use of AI could arguably save lives and offer unparalleled tactical advantages, however the Pentagon is working on tactics, techniques and procedures to optimize AI without compromising the key, well-established doctrinal requirement that only humans decide about “lethal force.” The discussion of “out-of-the-loop” autonomy was
Should something like a swarm of mini-drone explosives close in for an attack or a salvo of incoming hypersonic missiles approach at speeds five times the speed of sound, human decision makers simply might not be able to respond quickly enough. In fact, military commanders may not get any chance to counterattack or determine the best course of defensive action.
Not only would there not be time for a human decision-maker to weigh the threat variables, but weapons operators themselves may simply be too overwhelmed to detect, track, engage or fire upon high-speed simultaneous attacks should they receive orders. There just simply is not time.
Essentially, should an AI-enabled system, which aggregates and analyzes otherwise disparate pools of incoming sensor data be able to accurately discern the difference between lethal and non-lethal force? Could AI-enabled interceptors be used for drone defense or a method of instantly taking out incoming enemy rockets, drones, artillery or mortars?
“Right now we don’t have the authority to have a human out of the loop,” Col. Marc E. Pelini, the division chief for capabilities and requirements within the Joint Counter-Unmanned Aircraft Systems Office, said during a 2021 teleconference, according to a Pentagon report. “Based on the existing Department of Defense policy, you have to have a human within the decision cycle at some point to authorize the engagement.”
When it comes to drone defense, intercepting anti-ship missiles or, for example, defending ships from high-speed hypersonic attacks, an ability to leverage high-speed, AI-enabled defensive countermeasures could help identify and destroy incoming attacks in milliseconds. This could potentially save lives, ships and entire fleets from destruction by massively truncating countermeasure response time. The challenge with this will of course rely upon the extent to which AI-enabled sensors and data processing are able to accurately discern the difference between lethal and non-lethal missions, a level of discrimination which could prove challenging in some cases. Perhaps EW could be used autonomously to “jam” the RF guidance systems of incoming enemy anti-ship missiles? These kinds of questions are the cutting edge of AI, as Pentagon and Industry weapons developers work to refine and strenghten the reliability of AI-enabled sensors. The effort, called “zero-trust,” is a fast-moving industry and Pentagon series of innovations, testing and implementation intended to break AI through to a new level of discernment and reliability. What happens if an AI-system comes across something that is not part of its databas
e? We often hear that AI-systems are only as effective as their database, yet advanced algorithms are increasingly able to analyze more subjective phenomena and determine meaning of unrecognized sensor data by using “context” or a more “wholistic” interpretation of a number of variables in relation to one another.
LUSV to “Fire Missiles” With “Human-in-the-Loop”
While it is certainly conceivable that an LUSV could be engineered with this kind of technology in the future should “reliable” AI-capable systems be integrated, the Navy is clear that autonomous payloads will be “incapable of activation” without an “off-hull” operating performing command and control, and will “not be capable of autonomous payload engagement or execute of a complete detect to engage sequence,” the CRS report specifies. However, the ability to target, process data and “recommend” or “transmit” countermeasure options exponentially faster to human decision-makers is paradigm changing.
There are other significant tactical advantages with an LUSV, some of which are likely to generate new concepts of operation for the Navy. An unmanned system can, for example, maintain a mission for weeks or even months at a time with much greater endurance and of course operate in highly-dangerous contested waters without placing humans at risk. With remote command and control performed by humans and made possible by advanced AI-empowered data processing and secure networking, humans could assess threats, conduct dangerous forward reconnaissance or test the perimeter of enemy defenses.
It seems networking would provide a particular advantage for large unmanned systems such as those now in Japan, should they be able to network with Japanese warships to establish a target track on a ballistic missile or enemy formation. The next step for Ghost-Fleet, it would seem clear, might involve extending semi-autonomous networking operations beyond the US Navy to integrate allied ships such as Japanese reconnaissance boats or attack ships.
Kris Osborn President of Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization. Osborn previously served at the Pentagon as a Highly Qualified Expert with the Office of the Assistant Secretary of the Army—Acquisition, Logistics & Technology. Osborn has also worked as an anchor and on-air military specialist at national TV networks. He has appeared as a guest military expert on Fox News, MSNBC, The Military Channel, and The History Channel. He also has a Masters Degree in Comparative Literature from Columbia University.
